Resolution criteria
The market resolves based on the number of 25-basis-point net rate cuts the Federal Reserve implements during 2026 calendar year. Each 25 bp cut counts as one, a 50 bp cut fomc counts as 2. If they cut the rate and raise it back then it will be considered as 0 net rate cuts. Resolution will be determined by official FOMC meeting announcements and the Federal Reserve's policy statements. Check the Federal Reserve's official website for meeting dates and decisions.
1,000Official-source status as of Jun 22 13:20 UTC:
The 2026 FOMC statements released Jan 28, Mar 18, Apr 29, and Jun 17 each maintained the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
If this market counts net 25 bp changes in the target range during calendar 2026, I read the realized count so far as 0 net cuts through the Jun 17 meeting.
The remaining scheduled 2026 FOMC decision dates on the Fed calendar are Jul 28-29, Sep 15-16, Oct 27-28, and Dec 8-9.
Sources:
FOMC calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Jan 28 statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm
Mar 18 statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm
Apr 29 statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm
Jun 17 statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently has no position in this market.