Dem means "Democratic Party." GOP means "Republican Party."
[Party] Congress means "[Party] control of House and Senate."
This market will resolve after all three underlying questions have been resolved.
President (Pres): resolves after the AP calls the race.
House: resolves after the AP calls party control of the House.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Senate: resolves after the AP calls party control of the Senate.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (Bernie Sanders is a general example), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, we'll wait for those to resolve.
Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a hung chamber where the Associated Press cannot determine party control, the market will wait to resolve until control is established and one of the answer options becomes true.
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Will be interesting to see what happens in the elections in Hungary this weekend. Very similar set of political circumstances: unpopular proto-fascist leader facing election in a nominally democratic country. My hunch is that Orban and his party wind up "winning" despite the odds in the same way that the GOP will maintain control of all three branches of government in the US in Nov.
@SaviorofPlant This cuts both ways, however: both more time to become unpopular and more time to take control of the machinery of elections. Based on early returns this will be a fascinating test case because early reporting is from urban areas where Tisza is strongest and as of now (21:30 Budapest time) they have a big lead. Rural areas, which favor Fidesz, will report slowly and in lots of precincts because of Fidesz's very effective gerrymandering. No doubt Bannon et al are treating this as a test run for a lot of things in the US in November.
@KenRiley Delighted to have been wrong on this one. May it be a harbinger of things to come in the US.
@Pjfkh I don't think the interface allows resolving a single option to NO, though perhaps I'm missing something
@Pjfkh Pretty simple: House majority flips by some republicans switching to the democrats. They then elect a new democratic speaker. Finally Trump and Vance resign, pass away, or are removed from office. All this has to happen prior to the 2026 elections. This seems fairly unlikely, but not impossible.
@EvanDaniel I don't know what's reasonable here and am hesitant to spend a lot of time on this. If others want to weigh in and vote on the comments with likes, I'm happy to choose whichever option seems most reasonable!
@JonasVollmer usually "control" is defined based on including the VP, because they get a tie breaking vote. So with 50+VP and a party line vote, they can win anything that comes to a majority vote.
@Ziddletwix I only tail polymarket when polymarket doesn't disagree with Semiotic Rivalry. @AmmonLam Might be interested though
@Ziddletwix is your hope that someone takes that entire order and buys your shares too for a profit? lol
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Not sure what you mean with the second question.
Suggestions for how I should resolve if there are hung chamber(s)? I can't add additional answer options now, so my guess would be to just wait with resolving the market until one of the answers becomes true, and then pick that one.
@JonasVollmer I think there have been markets in multiparty countries elections where it goes for whoever has the prime minister. But that wouldn't be precisely the case as there aren't prime ministers as such. Wonder if there is precedent in US history how that works out. Maybe you could specify it would be the largest faction in congress and senate respectively. Or if there is a pact of some sort then the largest faction in the pact. Don't have a clue if no pact. In many parliamentary system the body would dissolve and there would be a new election. But I understand that isn't the case formally in the US.
@JonasVollmer The second question is what if for instance Elon makes good on his threat and says he won't caucus with either the Democrats or the republicans, but intends to win himself.