🏅 Top traders

Is the person Mira?

@Marnix Yes.

@evan wtf, you said they were not a Manifold user, I demand a refund or N/A

@TheAllMemeingEye I said "No" to the question "is this person on Manifold", which I think is accurate given Mira no longer has an account here.

@evan that's like saying no to "do they exist" then it turns out it's a real historical figure and you were secretly using the highly unconventional definition in which being dead is not existing anymore

@evan if it had been "are they ACTIVE on manifold" then I couldn't fault you but this feels extremely misleading, there are very much posts and comments under her username still present on the site that I think most people would instinctively consider as that user being on the site

@evan I'm okay with resolving to this, but next time please clarify that 'on manifold' means 'currently on manifold'

@evan ok, I've slightly calmed down, would you be willing to send me my losses of 120 mana if I generate that mana for you by betting on 12 of your markets that I haven't before? I can even still give you a 5 star rating through my gritted teeth if you take this up

@TheAllMemeingEye Only 11 markets are needed, I gave a 10M tip to evan

@100Anonymous thanks 🙏

@TheAllMemeingEye I don't think your "do they exist" question is a perfect analogy. Other imperfect analogies, which I think are closer but which go the other way:

"Are they a British citizen?" "No" (Person is Tony Abbott, who used to be a British citizen until he renounced it in order to run for Australian parliament.)

"Are they Christian?" "No" (Matt Dillahunty, who used to be Christian but became an atheist.)

"Are they a user of Twitter/X?" "No" (One of the many people who used to be an active user but left.)

I agree with you that in normal conversation it would be misleading to answer "no" without clarifying, but in this case, I also think it would be (much more) misleading to answer "yes" without clarifying. I know when you personally play this game you give a bit more information in case of grey areas, but I think Evan has been playing more "strictly", trying to give the least bad "yes or no" answer in the situation. And I think "no" was much better than "yes" in this case.

But I'm biased for two reasons, so idk 🙃

@Fion I think he could have gave no with clarification

@TheAllMemeingEye With the current trader bonuses, you would have to bet in every one of my markets plus every option in each of my unlinked multiple-choice/numeric markets that you haven't bet on before and even then, the total would still be ~10 mana short. However, if you are still willing to do this, then I will send you the 120 mana.

@evan I paid 10M in tips on behalf of @TheAllMemeingEye

@evan It is done

@evan thank you for keeping your end of the bargain

Has she stated that she may build powerful AI systems?

@100Anonymous Yes.

Has she ever expressed a desire to expand the territory of the Spanish Empire?

@MalachiteEagle No idea.

Has she been on Manifold in the past?

@Fion Yes.

@Mira still has an account! Please clarify active account. @evan

@100Anonymous I also want refund for the mana I lost

@100Anonymous Mira is not on Manifold anymore.

@evan please clarify that! Can I have a refund?

@100Anonymous 650 mana

@100Anonymous To clarify: it was asked whether the person I'm thinking of is on Manifold and I answered "No." I don't see how that conflicts with Mira being the person I'm thinking of, given that she seems to have deleted her account and left the site

@100Anonymous I've put a temporary limit order at current market value if you want to sell out

@evan oops! Thanks a lot @Fion!

@100Anonymous it seems I have also been scammed 😔