Resolution criteria

The 2026 midterm elections will take place in November 2026. This market resolves YES if uniformed military personnel are deployed to polling stations during voting on election day or early voting periods. "Uniformed military" means active duty, National Guard, or Reserve personnel in official military attire. The deployment must be to the actual polling location or its immediate vicinity (within 100 feet).

Resolution sources: News reports from major outlets (AP, Reuters, NPR, etc.), official statements from the Department of Defense, state election officials, or court filings documenting such deployments. The market resolves NO if no such deployments occur.

Background

Democratic governors have warned that the deployment of National Guard troops into cities in 2025 is likely a precursor for a concerted effort to send federal agents into Democratic cities and states during the 2026 elections. Federal law is explicit: it is illegal to deploy federal troops or armed federal law enforcement to any polling place, and it is a federal crime for anyone in the U.S. military to interfere in elections in any way. Specifically, 18 U.S.C. § 592 prohibits any officer of the Army or Navy from ordering, bringing, keeping, or having control of troops or armed men at any polling place during an election, with a narrow exception only when "necessary to repel armed enemies of the United States."

Considerations

Given the politicization of the Justice Department, there is reasonable doubt whether the administration's own lawyers would pursue charges related to a deployment ordered by the president, though such crimes are subject to a five-year statute of limitations. Additionally, voters intimidated by military presence could seek judicial relief under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and election officials and poll workers could also bring lawsuits against voter intimidation.