RESOLUTION CRITERIA (BOTH REQUIRED FOR YES):
A single executive order must:
1. Grant clemency/commutation to individuals incarcerated due to non-unanimous jury verdicts (those with finalized convictions)
2. Explicitly state that sentences for individuals who were RETRIED and RE-CONVICTED in these cases are deemed SATISFIED by time already served
LEGAL EFFECT:
- For Group 1 (original convictions): Direct release via clemency power
- For Group 2 (retrial reconvictions): Automatic release occurs because "deemed satisfied" means no sentence remains to serve
- Both groups would be released through standard Department of Corrections procedures
ORDER: Must be a single executive order meeting both conditions.
DEADLINE: Issued before January 1, 2033.
SOURCE: Official executive orders from Louisiana Governor's office.
BACKGROUND: Non-unanimous jury verdicts ("Jim Crow juries") were ruled unconstitutional in Ramos v. Louisiana (2020). This addresses both those still incarcerated under finalized verdicts AND those reconvicted after retrial.
DISCLOSURE: I am both market creator and advocate. All activism will be public. No non-public information will be used for trading.
1,000📝 LEGAL PRECISION UPDATE:
Clarified that the required executive order mechanism is "sentences deemed satisfied by time already served" - which triggers automatic release through standard DOC procedures.
This ensures unambiguous resolution based on order text, not implementation timing.
Market still at ~27% - does this clarification change anyone's assessment?
Subject: Prediction market on non-unanimous jury clemency - currently 27%
Hi,
I've created a prediction market that currently gives a 27% probability that a Louisiana Governor will issue executive clemency for non-unanimous jury victims by 2033.
The market: https://manifold.markets/emmanuelvictor/will-a-la-governor-by-2033-free-all
As an advocate for this outcome, I'm maintaining the market transparently while working toward the goal. The market itself could serve as both a public sentiment gauge and attention-generating tool.
Best,
Emmanuel