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MANIFOLD
How common will Jury Nullification be in the following years, according to a funded collaborative review?
6
Ṁ285Ṁ129
2030
26%
2027
24%
2026
22%
2025
22%
2024
20%
2029

For each of the following years, I commit to spending at least $100 to fund a collaborative review by debaters and credible judges (with specific rules/mechanism tbd - open to suggestions) to give an estimate of the proportion of US criminal trials which ended in jury nullification that year. This market resolves to the proportion determined by the review.

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do 2025 or 2024 resolve yet?

@strutheo On my list to have the models systematically estimate.