Will YouTube Music be discontinued before 2025?
87
573
1.1K
2025
18%
chance

Resolves YES if there is announcement by Google before January 1st 2025 that YouTube Music will be shut down (even if the shutdown actually happens after 2024).

If users are made to switch to another service (like what happened with Google Music) it will still resolve YES if the other service is different.

Also resolves YES if YouTube Music merges with the YouTube app and Music subscribers are forced to switch to YouTube Premium.

It won't resolve YES if YouTube Music changes name but is the same product. In that case I will change the question and description to the new name.

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Will YouTube Music be discontinued before 2025?

yes it's true I Think the application youtube music be discontinued before 2025.

bought Ṁ150 of NO

With their recent pivot towards integrating other apps and features into youtube music, with music app being the hub? no way The engineering effort alone would take you to Q4 2024.

predicts NO

@firstuserhere Sad part of this integration is that they killed off Google Podcasts, which was actually such a good app. It was clean, fairly minimalistic, had most of the podcasts and if not could always plug in the RSS feed, nice audio controls, synced well across devices due to google account... and now its gone. Ugh.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I don't think it will be discontinued because they are increasing their number of subscribers and market share over the years. Until 2022, the streaming app had 80 million subscribers, an increase of 60% compared to the prior year (50 million). A lot higher than Spotify, which increased only 13.9% between 2022 (188 million) and 2021 (165 million). Regarding the global streaming market share in the same year, YouTube Music reached 13.66%, 5pp more compared to 2021 ( 8%). For example, Spotify went from 31% to 32.10% (1pp) and Amazon from 13% to 12.63% (-1pp). All this info makes me believe the streaming service will continue providing its service. Otherwise, they would not be implementing beta programs, "listening room," which aims to increase the participation of users by providing exclusive features.

here are the sources on which I based my opinion:

  1. https://sxmbusiness.com/music-streaming-market-share-and-revenue-statistics/

  2. https://www.businessofapps.com/data/music-streaming-market/

  3. https://www.androidcentral.com/apps-software/youtube-music-listening-room-beta-program

  4. https://explodingtopics.com/blog/music-streaming-stats

@ShirleyPinzas My team and I agree with this analysis. We would have also made the same bet. As stated before, YouTube Music's consistent growth in subscriber count and market share indicates a strong position in the music streaming business. In addition to that:

• YouTube Music is the fastest growing subscription service in 2021. (link)

• YouTube Music could have been involved in the growth of 8.2% from the reported figure in the prior-year quarter, with $58.94 billion in advertising. (link)

• Google announced a month ago that Google podcasts will be shutting down in late 2024. Now that YouTube Music has started supporting podcasts in the U.S., the company expects their streamers to transition to YouTube Music Google did the same strategy for their product Google Play Music. (link)

• According to their investor relations page: Other Revenues reached $8.1 billion, a 24% increase, driven by YouTube non-advertising income growth, particularly from YouTube Music Premium and YouTube TV subscriptions, as well as the launch of the Pixel 7a boosting Hardware revenues in the second quarter. Also, even though the price of their product YouTube Music increased, they had an increase of subscribers. (link)

My team and I agreed on Shirley's bet because we found some complementary data. Since 2021, YouTube Music has been one of the fastest-growing subscription services (music business worldwide). Also, in the prior year quarter, the app has been involved in the growth of 8.2% and part of the $58.94 billion in advertising for Google (Yahoo Finance). In other news, Google announced the shutdown of Google Podcast in late 2024; now that YouTube Music has started supporting podcasts in the U.S., the company expects their streamers to transition to YouTube Music. Google used the same strategy for its product Google Play Music (Tech Crunch). According to their investor relations page, they reached $8.1 billion in revenue in the latest quarter of this year. This was driven by YouTube non-advertising income growth like YouTube Music and YouTube TV subscriptions. Also, even though the price of their product, Youtube Music, increased, they had an increase in subscribers (2023 Q2 Earnings Call). YouTube Music's steady growth in subscribers and market share suggests a strong position in music streaming, with strategic advantages that appeal to a wider audience than Spotify and Amazon.

References:

- https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/lyor-cohen-youtube-music-is-the-fastest-growing-subscription-service-out-there/

- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-inc-googl-trending-stock-130010068.html

- https://techcrunch.com/2023/09/26/google-podcasts-to-shut-down-in-2024-with-listeners-migrated-to-youtube-music/

- https://abc.xyz/2023-q2-earnings-call/

predicts YES

Related:

🤣 People use Youtube Music??

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Simon1551 I had Google Music and was forced to switch to YouTube Music when Google Music shut down. They grandfathered me with a lower price. I keep it just because it includes YouTube Premium which has no ads on regular YouTube, plus downloading videos and background playback. I feel like they will merge the apps and force the YouTube Music subscribers to switch to YouTube Premium. I'm actually going to add that case to the description.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@egroj I have YouTube Premium because that removes the ads but I ever used YouTube Music there are much better music streaming services imo

predicts YES

@Simon1551 totally agree, that is why I feel like YouTube Music days are numbered

predicts YES

@egroj Actually, I think it might happen this year, I'll make another market for this year

bought Ṁ5 of NO
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