Will Sepp Kuss be the leader of his team during a Grand Tour during 2024?
12
921
Aug 18
57%
chance

Resolves YES if at the start of the Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, or La Vuelta a España, Sepp Kuss is considered as the main general classification rider on his team.

The resolution will be a little bit subjective, but if Kuss stays with Jumbo-Visma, basically it will resolve YES if he competes at a Grand Tour and Jonas Vingegaard does not. If Jonas is also competing, in order to resolve YES, Kuss would need to have his race number ending in 1, and Jonas would have to very strongly state that he will be working for Kuss during the whole 3 weeks.

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bought Ṁ40 YES

Cawwww!!!!

bought Ṁ5 YES

Now that WvA is out, Visma should send Kuss to the Giro

@egroj Preparation timeline seems a little off. Kuss might be the leader for the TDF instead.

@Eliza true, and I had forgotten that Uijtdebroeks is going to Giro.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@egroj If we collectively thought this was 35% before Jonas had a major crash, surely it has to be greater than 35% after. For whichever grand tour.

predicts YES

@Eliza “I think the thing I’m most looking forward to is going to the Vuelta being the defending champion, and also going to the Tour [and] doing my best there, whether it’s for myself or for Jonas"

Holy moly.

predicts YES

Horner making a point that Visma should send Kuss to the Giro: https://youtu.be/wYLBMB9PJdw?si=FYNRuMYBdMvxhQaU

I swear I had written another comment here but I don't see it.

I don't think Jonas starting the Vuelta is 100%. There's also a chance Jonas gets injured or otherwise can't start the Tour.

I do think Jonas will wish to win the Vuelta at least once in his career and since he lost it in 2023, he is more likely to try again in 2024. But maybe he decides to skip 2024 and wait until 2025.

Why is this rates so high? I think it's fair to say Vingegaard is going to start Tour and Vuelta as leader. And the Giro doesn't fit Kuss at all with too many ITT kilometers and punchy finishes.

@Lion I think it depends a lot of what Kuss wants to do. He said that he doesn't enjoy the pressure of being the main GC guy. Assuming that he wants to ride a Grand Tour as GC, maybe the team would like to keep him happy (I think his contract is until next year) and negotiate with Jonas so that he does Giro + Tour for example, and leave Vuelta to Kuss

predicts NO

@egroj Seriously, there is no way Vingegaard does Giro + Tour next year. (Earlier Tour cause of Olympics). I think Kuss as a co-leader at the Vuelta is a great idea, but the only way I will see him starting the Vuelta without Vingegaard if Vingegaard is injured or sth like that. I don't think it's completely off the charts that he starts again as a solo leader, but with next year's Giro I don't see it at over 60%. JVs main objective should be to keep Vingegaard happy. They can win GTs without Kuss, but not without Vingegaard.

predicts YES

@Lion I had forgotten about the Olympics, good point

predicts YES

@Lion But who else do they send as GC contender to other races now that Primoz is gone? Also don't see it as a lock-in that Vingegaard rides Vuelta again, unless they've said that.

predicts NO

@JCE they don't have to send a GC contender, but they could send GC Picasso (if he would prioritize Olympics above the Tour), Kelderman, Jorgenson, etc. They don't have a lack of GC guys who could Top5. If they want to send superb Olav "Okay" Kooij to the Giro with a proper sprint train, there won't be place for a fully supported GC leader anyways. Vingegaard not doing the Vuelta is possible, but not like 80%.

Almost definitely going to ride dom for Jonas at the Tour. I think he takes either the Giro or Vuelta off and rides the other as GC.