Resolves YES if at the start of the Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, or La Vuelta a España, Sepp Kuss is considered as the main general classification rider on his team.
The resolution will be a little bit subjective, but if Kuss stays with Jumbo-Visma, basically it will resolve YES if he competes at a Grand Tour and Jonas Vingegaard does not. If Jonas is also competing, in order to resolve YES, Kuss would need to have his race number ending in 1, and Jonas would have to very strongly state that he will be working for Kuss during the whole 3 weeks.
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Why did this market decrease so much? Visma was still optimistic he'd be starting the tour for a while so I imagine his ilness isn't too horrible and he is likely to start the Vuelta. Vingegaard is apparently not doing the Vuelta so this market should resolve positively according to the criteria.
I own Yes shares but I did sell a little bit earlier in the month. I was wondering if Jorgenson might end up being the Vuelta leader this year or something like that. He has had so few total racedays -- even if he finishes the TDF he'll barely be over 40. Or no GC leader and send Wout. Or something.
As Eliza said, Jonas is probably not doing the Vuelta (no confirmation by the team yet, but the pregnancy is confirmed). If Kuss is riding the Vuelta I would be very surprised if he is not starting as a leader. He is the defending champion after all, and it is not like Uijtdebroeks or Jorgenson have proven themselves to be much better riders.
@egroj If we collectively thought this was 35% before Jonas had a major crash, surely it has to be greater than 35% after. For whichever grand tour.
@Eliza “I think the thing I’m most looking forward to is going to the Vuelta being the defending champion, and also going to the Tour [and] doing my best there, whether it’s for myself or for Jonas"
Holy moly.
Horner making a point that Visma should send Kuss to the Giro: https://youtu.be/wYLBMB9PJdw?si=FYNRuMYBdMvxhQaU
I swear I had written another comment here but I don't see it.
I don't think Jonas starting the Vuelta is 100%. There's also a chance Jonas gets injured or otherwise can't start the Tour.
I do think Jonas will wish to win the Vuelta at least once in his career and since he lost it in 2023, he is more likely to try again in 2024. But maybe he decides to skip 2024 and wait until 2025.
@Lion I think it depends a lot of what Kuss wants to do. He said that he doesn't enjoy the pressure of being the main GC guy. Assuming that he wants to ride a Grand Tour as GC, maybe the team would like to keep him happy (I think his contract is until next year) and negotiate with Jonas so that he does Giro + Tour for example, and leave Vuelta to Kuss
@egroj Seriously, there is no way Vingegaard does Giro + Tour next year. (Earlier Tour cause of Olympics). I think Kuss as a co-leader at the Vuelta is a great idea, but the only way I will see him starting the Vuelta without Vingegaard if Vingegaard is injured or sth like that. I don't think it's completely off the charts that he starts again as a solo leader, but with next year's Giro I don't see it at over 60%. JVs main objective should be to keep Vingegaard happy. They can win GTs without Kuss, but not without Vingegaard.
@Lion But who else do they send as GC contender to other races now that Primoz is gone? Also don't see it as a lock-in that Vingegaard rides Vuelta again, unless they've said that.
@JCE they don't have to send a GC contender, but they could send GC Picasso (if he would prioritize Olympics above the Tour), Kelderman, Jorgenson, etc. They don't have a lack of GC guys who could Top5. If they want to send superb Olav "Okay" Kooij to the Giro with a proper sprint train, there won't be place for a fully supported GC leader anyways. Vingegaard not doing the Vuelta is possible, but not like 80%.