Will Remco Evenepoel race for Soudal–Quick-Step in 2024?
23
469
370
resolved Feb 10
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Remco Evenepoel participates in a UCI road race for Soudal–Quick-Step during 2024.

Resolves NO if he does not particpate in any UCI road races in 2024, and also resolves NO as soon as he participates in a UCI road race for another team after transfering teams (even in the very unlikely scenario that he would return later to Soudal for another race).

If the team changes its name, I will still resolve with the 2023 team name. Similarly, if Soudal–Quick-Step merges with another team, for example if Remco remains in the merged team (and races for it), it resolves YES.

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@egroj resolves yes, [edit: NOT] Murcia

@Lion Figueroa Classic, but yes thanks

@egroj sorry, mixed it up, your's is correct, was a little bit confused because they've talked about him in the Murcia broadcast for a pretty long time and I wasn't really paying attention

predicted YES

I would like to submit for consideration an extension of the closing deadline to the last day of the 2024 UCI season, which tentatively looks like 20 October 2024 with the conclusion of Guangxi. If I have to make a decision by 13 January on events that could happen in the 1-2 months before the first race Remco might have on his calendar, I have a hard time figuring out what the correct probability is and at least to me, that goes against the spirit of the question.

If you're going to stick to 13 January can you let us know so we can adjust our positions to reflect that?

predicted YES

After the race, Remco made quite definitive comments that he will remain with the team in 2024:

"The team stays, so I stay with the team Soudal Quick-Step"

sold Ṁ60 of YES

More weird scenarios keep coming up: now cyclingnews is reporting that Lefevere wants to "keep the team running under its current WorldTour licence following any partial takeover or merger with Jumbo-Visma" (https://vcpcycling.com/lefevere-aiming-to-save-remains-of-quickstep-team-in-event-of-jumbo-visma-merger/?feed_id=9054.

, original https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/lefevere-aiming-to-save-remains-of-quickstep-team-in-event-of-jumbo-visma-merger/)

That's another scenario that I had not considered, although if there is still a Lefevere team with the current license wouldn't that negate a merger?

In that scenario if Remco races under Lefevere's team (assuming it is still using the current SQS license) I would consider that team as the new SQS and resolve YES.

But what if he moves to the "merged" team in that scenario? I'm feeling strongly that then I should resolve NO.

Comments are welcomed

predicted NO

I just want to re-re-confirm.

  • If Remco rides for a skeleton Lefevere-Quick Step team, resolves Yes

  • If Remco rides for a merged TJV+Soudal team, resolves Yes, regardless of whether there exists a skeleton Lefevere-Quick Step team

  • If no merger happens and Remco rides for Lefevere-Quick Step, resolves Yes

  • If Remco leaves Soudal - Quick Step and Soudal stays with Quick Step, and Remco moves to Team Jumbo Visma, without Soudal, resolves No

@Eliza thanks for putting all the scenarios, you have them all right except:

  • If Remco rides for a merged TJV+Soudal team, resolves NO IF THERE EXISTS a skeleton Lefevere-Quick Step team

@egroj In summary I would consider first the Lefevere team as the new SQS, but if there is a merger and there is no Lefevere team including if the license gets sold to another team, then I would consider the merged team the new SQS

predicted NO

Similarly, if Soudal–Quick-Step merges with another team, for example if Remco remains in the merged team (and races for it), it resolves YES.

Can you confirm that if SOQ ceases operations and a few SOQ riders move to TJV for 2024, you are in all circumstances going to count this as a "merger" and if Remco rides for this merged team, this question resolves Yes?

That is, you don't care about the minutiae of whether it is a "merger", or "SOQ folding", or anything else -- if Remco rides in a jersey that says "Soudal" in 2024, you'll be giving it a Yes resolution.

predicted NO

@Eliza correct, I would consider the merged team still equivalent to 2023 SOQ

predicted NO

I clarified further the resolution criteria in the description and changed the title from 'ride' to 'race' to clarify that he has to compete in a race for Soudal to resolve YES.

predicted NO

@egroj Did you intend for this to close on 13 January or can we leave it open up through a possible resolution? I think it's highly unlikely that he will race at Tour Down Under.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

https://twitter.com/faustocoppi60/status/1708379098211356872

People from Evenepoel's entourage according to today's L'Equipe: "Everyone knows that Remco will never ride for Plugge. When the merger will happen, he will just sign his contract (already written) with Ineos. In 5 minutes, it will be done."

sold Ṁ72 of YES

@ElizaWhat is exactly the problem between Plugge and Evenepoel? Why do they hate each other? I've never heared an explanation for that.

sold Ṁ67 of NO

@Lion I have no idea, but I have heard this same thing multiple times in recent days. That Remco will never ride for Plugge.

predicted YES

@egroj I have seen a rumor that Soudal - Quick Step could merge with INEOS Grenadiers, possibly via Zdeněk Bakala selling his 80% stake in the team to Jim Ratcliffe.

How would this resolve if Remco rides for the merged INEOS/Quick Step team in 2024 if such a merger happened? It is not quite the same as the team changing its name.

predicted YES

@PelotonEliza I would say either should resolve NO (technically still riding for the same team), but I want to hear other opinions too. What do you think? I could also see an argument for resolving N/A in that case

predicted YES

@egroj sorry I mean should resolve YES

predicted YES

@egroj interesting that scenario too for this market, I guess it should also technically resolve YES too:

predicted NO

@egroj Id be fine with either YES or NA. Spirit of the question seems to be about individual transfer. But I wouldn’t argue with N/A. (Speaking as the largest NO position right now)

predicted YES

@egroj Basically, I don't want the question to resolve only on murky details like whether Ratcliffe sells the INEOS WT license to Ivan Glasenberg or sells the SOQ WT license instead, etc.

The probability of these types of scenarios is probably not very high, but the amount of chatter, rumors, and general mayhem about this issue makes me think it is at least a real possibility and I don't want it to ruin both of these two Remco markets.

How about if this Soudal - Quick Step market:

  • Resolves YES if Remco rides for Soudal - Quick Step AND no major team sale/merger happens (status quo, riding the same contract he is already on, etc.)

  • Resolves NO if Remco individually transfers away from SOQ

  • Resolves NO if Remco and some number of athletes with him transfer to a different team

  • Resolves N/A if the team substantially merges with another team, involving a mixture of both riders and staff, and the license of one of the merged teams is either canceled or sold onward

I feel like at least with the 80% yes we currently have, most participants would have expected the 1st scenario (status quo) in taking their positions.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Since there is interest and his contract is until 2026, I made another market for 2025: