MANIFOLD
will Anthropic have another leak in April 2026?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ47
May 2
34%
chance

In March 2026, Anthropic had three different leaks:

  • a leaked memo criticizing the US Department of War

  • leaked blogposts revealing the existence of "Claude Mythos"

  • Claude Code source code (leaked via sourcemap)

Resolves YES if Anthropic has proprietary information leaked (for example, but necessarily not limited to, weights, source code, internal business messages, etc) between the creation of this market (on April 2, 2026) and April 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. Resolves NO otherwise.

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If there are leaks whose factuality can't be verified until after April has ended will the market wait to resolve? Or this just resolves yes for leaks which are clearly accurate within the month of April?

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