Terence Tao is a renowned mathematician whose research spans many subdisciplines. He blogs at https://terrytao.wordpress.com, and usually his blogposts are either highly abstracted paper summaries or lecture notes, which discuss very deep topics from the frontiers of mathematics.
In recent years, however, his work has taken a decidedly nontechnical turn. This includes speculating about AI and advertising various jobs and organizations. Furthermore, even the mathematical content has become more dumbed-down. It is thus natural to wonder about whether this phase will continue.
This market resolves PROB to (#posts considered technical)/(#total posts). For the purpose of this market, a blogpost is considered technical if it contains at least one mathematical formula. Otherwise, it is considered nontechnical. Only blogposts made in 2023 by Terence Tao himself on the current wordpress blog will count (I am not expecting timezones to affect this).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ11 | |
| 2 | Ṁ7 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
My opinion on the existing blogposts:
Illustrating the Impact of the Mathematical Sciences (Jan 12) - nontechnical
Infinite partial sumsets in the primes (Jan 26) - technical
Would it be possible to create a tool to automatically diagram papers? (Feb 18) - technical? (my opinion could change on this)
Mathematics for Humanity initiative – application deadline extended to June 1 (Mar 9) - nontechnical
Elias M. Stein Prize for New Perspectives in Analysis (Apr 4) - nontechnical
PCAST Working Group on Generative AI Invites Public Input (May 13) - nontechnical
AI to Assist Mathematical Reasoning: A Workshop (Jun 2) - nontechnical? (my opinion could also change on this)
Inequalities, convergence, and continuity as “special deals” (Jun 4) - technical
Thus we have a total of 4 technical and 5 nontechnical posts so far as of market creation, for a fraction of 4/(4 + 5) = 44% technical posts.
Resolve time (I'll just use dates to save typing)
Dec 10: technical
Dec 5: technical
Nov 18: technical
Nov 13: technical
Oct 10: technical
Sep 30: technical
Sep 6: technical
Aug 25: technical
Aug 23: technical
Aug 14: technical
June 29: technical
June 27: technical
June 20: technical
June 19: non-technical
June 16: technical
So that counts for 14 technical and 1 non-technical. Thus a total of 18 technical and 6 non-technical, so 18/(18 + 6) = 75% unless anyone has any protests.