Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Mini

8

Ṁ762027

74%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Fields medalist Terence Tao has recently been interested in the Lean proof assistant. He recently started formalizing one of his papers in Lean.

This question is to forecast whether he will still be interested in Lean in a few years. It resolves YES if Tao publishes or preprints any paper with Lean source code in the text of the paper between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31.

Get Ṁ600 play money

## Related questions

Will I be an author on a paper accepted to an academic conference in 2024?

91% chance

Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?

35% chance

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

45% chance

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

19% chance

Will Anthropic and OpenAI collaborate substantially on a research paper before 2025?

52% chance

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

68% chance

Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?

40% chance

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

27% chance

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

31% chance

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

44% chance