Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?
Basic
9
Ṁ1762027
79%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Fields medalist Terence Tao has recently been interested in the Lean proof assistant. He recently started formalizing one of his papers in Lean.
This question is to forecast whether he will still be interested in Lean in a few years. It resolves YES if Tao publishes or preprints any paper with Lean source code in the text of the paper between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Tetra make an alignment-focused LessWrong post that she is proud of by the end of 2024?
28% chance
If Tetra writes [a] Lesswrong post(s) about alignment she is proud of in 2024, which subfield(s) will it be about?
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
38% chance
Will "The Learning-Theoretic Agenda: Status 2023" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
47% chance
Will Tetraspace have published a research paper on AI alignment by March 1, 2025?
42% chance
Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
45% chance
Will I convert someone to LaTeX by EOY 2024 ?
39% chance
Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.
39% chance
Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?
60% chance
Will "Toward A Mathematical Framework for Computati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
46% chance