Go crazy on this!
This is a combination prop bets, personal guessing game, and recommendation market all about yours truly - duck_master! Pretty much anything related to me or my life can be added as an answer here. (The initial answers are just to get the bets started.) Answers about what I'll be like in the future resolve on their own terms (but due to my uncertainty about the pivot, I'll only resolve personal questions up to Dec 31, 2024). Answers about the past or present (ie as of answer addition) resolve ~7 days after being added or after getting 7 traders, whichever comes first.
The PLACEHOLDER option is a placeholder meant to keep the market open. It resolves to the first of these three that I (or a mod/admin/Manifold employee, in my absence) can resolve to at the end of 2024: N/A, 50%, or a coin flip (where heads = YES, tails = NO). Unresolved, irrelevant, nonsensical, and/or spam answers shall also resolve using the same method.
I won't bet or place limit orders. I may add answers.
EDIT: change rules due to real money pivot
1,000
3.00I initially thought about resolving this to NO, but now that I think of it I'll probably want to resolve this to 50% instead to make y'all a little happier (as all four of you who bet on this answer took the YES side).
Have I looked through the list of Manifold user's bets? Yes. Have I ever wondered about specific users' positions on certain questions? Yes. Despite this, I have never actually quite done the conjunction of those two, partially because the "holders" tab tells me instantly whoever has bet on the markets I care about, and partially because most users' lists of bets are boring as hell because, to a first approximation, it's just a random sample of markets (I'm not sure any user has actually managed to concentrate their betting on certain topics).
The closest I've ever come to was when I tried to copy-trade @acc once on its largest positions (which are surprisingly quite rational, even though it anti-trades everyone). I don't think I could have profited too much from that though. Also, those are exactly the kinds of markets where holding any position more than ~10 mana seems to necessitate having personally done weeks of original research/investigation on the topic. This kind of stuff is what I do not want to devote my life to, even though predicting the future is really interesting in general.