duck_master's prop bets / AMA / recommendations [add answers!]
5
325Ṁ122
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES
he will receive at least 5 meaningful, non-spam, non-newsletter emails to his protonmail address by EOY
Resolved
YES
he will read "The Toolbox: Strategies for Crafting Social Impact" by Jacob Harold cover to cover
Resolved
25%
he will be proficient in any formal theorem prover (eg Lean, Metamath, etc) by EOY 2024
Resolved
N/A
he will sleep before 1am on any day from sep 18 - 22 inclusive
Resolved
NO
he will consider his internship this summer to be fulfilling/happy/successful
Resolved
NO
he'll improve his mental health significantly
Resolved
N/A
PLACEHOLDER
Resolved
N/A
if he reads far-left media every day, he'll regret it
Resolved
NO
he will sleep before midnight any day this week (July 8-14)
Resolved
YES
he'll have another computer/device lost or unusable in 2024
Resolved
50%
He has ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

Go crazy on this!

This is a combination prop bets, personal guessing game, and recommendation market all about yours truly - duck_master! Pretty much anything related to me or my life can be added as an answer here. (The initial answers are just to get the bets started.) Answers about what I'll be like in the future resolve on their own terms (but due to my uncertainty about the pivot, I'll only resolve personal questions up to Dec 31, 2024). Answers about the past or present (ie as of answer addition) resolve ~7 days after being added or after getting 7 traders, whichever comes first.

The PLACEHOLDER option is a placeholder meant to keep the market open. It resolves to the first of these three that I (or a mod/admin/Manifold employee, in my absence) can resolve to at the end of 2024: N/A, 50%, or a coin flip (where heads = YES, tails = NO). Unresolved, irrelevant, nonsensical, and/or spam answers shall also resolve using the same method.

I won't bet or place limit orders. I may add answers.


EDIT: change rules due to real money pivot

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