Will blockchain tech find a killer app in 2023?
15%
chance
Jan 1, 2024
M$50 bet
Examples of things that would make this resolve to YES: 1. Crypto as an actual currency goes mainstream, like normal people buying actual things with it, not just speculating 2. DAOs emerge as a common/better way to run organizations 3. Blockchain becomes a common/better way to track property ownership 4. Manifold moves to crypto? PS: I mean by the end of 2023!
Austin

Austin is betting YES at 32% 25 days ago

Yeah actually - if Stripe wants to focus on being digital money, then we can focus on all the cool stuff we can do with digital money (prediction markets, public goods funding, creator ISAs...)
dreev

Daniel Reeves is betting YES at 32% 25 days ago

Ha, yes, we were one of Stripe's first customers and I've long predicted that they're going to end up eating the whole financial industry. But I think Manifold is safe! I think you're absolutely right to say you'll support cryptocurrency if and only if Stripe makes that easy. That's our stance: we'll support exactly the payment methods Stripe supports. (Currently we still support PayPal separately but we're dropping it because it's so much nicer to only integrate with Stripe.)
Austin

Austin is betting YES at 32% a month ago

Oh dang, thanks for forwarding! Maybe that means we can easily take crypto payments on Manifold now. Need to think through what other implications are. Also: this is a bit scary from a Manifold Existential Risk perspective, I think Stripe is the competitor I'd be most worried about (but also: most excited to partner with haha)
dreev

Daniel Reeves bought M$10 of YESa month ago

My probability here has shifted due to http://stripe.com/crypto
Austin

Austin bought M$5 of YESa month ago

There's probably at least a 10% chance we're on crypto by then (and, to be fair, at least a 1% chance something else is a "killer app" haha)