Examples of things that would make this resolve to YES:

1. Crypto as an actual currency goes mainstream, like normal people buying actual things with it, not just speculating

2. DAOs emerge as a common/better way to run organizations

3. Blockchain becomes a common/better way to track property ownership

4. Manifold moves to crypto?

FAQ

1. By when exactly?

December 31, 2023.

2. Doesn't such-and-such already count?

I'm arbitrarily saying that nothing as of April 2022 counted yet. If there's something since then that you think should count, make your case in the comments.

3. What does "going mainstream" or "normal people" mean?

I have in mind to poll my less technical friends and family and say it counts if at least 10% of them are using the killer app. So far this is 0% as far as I know but, again, make your case or suggest a specific thing to poll about in the comments. (See also question 6 about the bias here.)

4. What does "a common or better way to run organizations" mean?

For this I have in mind to poll my startup friends and say this counts if I can find 2 examples of people I know personally opting for a DAO in lieu of the traditional Delaware corp + English-language incorporation documents, etc. And they have to have opted for it because it was actually the business-savvy decision.

5. And "common/better" in the context of tracking property ownership?

I'll count it if I can find 2 examples of blockchain-based tracking of ownership that is treated as canonical. Canonicalness means that if the blockchain-based records were to disagree with other records, there's reason to believe that the blockchain version is the one that would win out. And, again, only examples where I know the people involved and they're using the blockchain tech because it's what's actually most practical. The idea is to use this as a proxy for being such a killer app that it's very widespread.

6. What if it's very widespread, just outside your bubble?

Penetrating my bubble is how I'm operationalizing the question. I'm an American, living in Oregon, startup founder and former academic. I know lots of people into crypto, lots of AI people, rationality people, I'm an investor in Manifold -- I think penetrating my bubble is a fine proxy for this question.