EU's combined GDP is estimated around $19.35 trillion nominal, representing 1/6th of global economy, similar figures to China. The reason EU is so emboldened in its tech regulation is because it understands Apple needs them more so than they need Apple.

If Apple is willing to comply with even the demands of China, which naturally comes with much more political baggage than EU, then we can infer Apple is unlikely to leave EU unless most of its revenue sources get threatened, which is very difficult to imagine given the majority of them are device sales, not services.

I don't think one even needs a predictive market for this type of inquiry.

How does this resolve if they only do it temporarily? e.g. they start refusing to sell to customers in the EU, but after a week the EU reverses whatever the disputed policy was or Apple gives up, and sales are open again by the close date?

How does this resolve if Apple drops a press release saying they'll do it, sets a deadline by which they'll stop selling, apparently sets all the logistical wheels in motion, but then changes course before the deadline?

@WilliamEhlhardt Great question! Shall we say 30 consecutive days have to elapse during which normal EU citizens really can't buy Apple stuff directly from Apple like they normally can? We could even say that that makes it 100% YES and anything less fractionally counts? But I think that if there's never even a moment when EU citizens are actually affected in terms of what they can buy, that should be a full NO even if it comes close.