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MANIFOLD
Will there be a cease-fire on the Israel/Gaza conflict by the end of 2023?
11
Ṁ230Ṁ3k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Any cease fire counts (even if broken later). I will also count as cease fire if Israel stop the attacks but maybe doesn’t call it a “cease fire” for optics.

I’ll resolve when I wake up in January 1st.

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What if Israel stop fighting without calling it cease fire, while Hamas will still shoot rockets at random time? Or more accurate: how long hamas need to not shoot any rockets to be consider cease fire that is not declared?

@BP17b6 If Hamas is still firing at Israel is not a cease fire. I also don’t believe Israel will cease if hamas is still actively shooting at them

predictedYES

@drcat You didn’t answer the question.

If they shoot once a day, will you consider that as a 23:59 hours of cease fire?

You said ANY break… so let’s define what is a break.

@BP17b6 It needs to be a official break, “declared” as so, but it doesn’t need to specifically be called a cease fire. I’m not sure how to keep track of the rockets being fired from one place to the other to give you a precise resolution criteria as you asked. Therefore, I would need a official declaration of a break of any kind from either side to resolve this as a YES.

predictedYES

@drcat Thanks for the clarification.

An official announcement on all sorts of breaks.