When will Joint Sword 2024B occur?
🇨🇳 ChinaChina Taiwan potential conflict🇹🇼 TaiwanSouth China Sea
Basic
4
Ṁ3.1k
Jan 1
33%
before September 1st
45%
before October 1st
49%
before November 1st
59%
before December 1st
59%
before Jan 1st 2025
41%
not before 2025
Resolved
NO
before July 1st
Resolved
NO
before August 1st

China recently conducted an exercise it named "Joint Sword 2024A" around Taiwan.

Based on the naming scheme, media in China and Taiwan expect further Joint Sword exercises this year:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-may-24-2024

>PRC and ROC media cited analysts who said that the exercise’s name, Joint Sword 2024A, suggests that there may be additional exercises in the series later this year. Follow-on exercises would be named Joint Sword 2024B, Joint Sword 2024C, and so on.[42] The PLA held only one Joint Sword exercise in 2023, the first in the series.[43]

Fine print/edge cases:

  • The exercise must be named something including "Joint Sword" and be clearly distinct from 2024A.

  • The exercise needn't literally be called Joint Sword 2024B (e.g Joint Sword 2024-2 would also count).

  • Dates/times are Taipei Standard Time, and if relevant, the time of the start of the exercise.

  • The exercise must also in some way be directed around/towards Taiwan. A "Joint Sword 2024B" that occurs for example in the Kashmir region does not count.

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