what will happen when I cycle across the USA this summer [add answers]?
148
5.7kṀ22k
Aug 15
69%
Make it to the end without any further broken spokes
21%
Divert or delay route due to wildfire and/or poor air quality due to smoke
22%
Observe, divert route or delay because of a tornado
95%
Notice a custom license plate that you find funny
20%
10 or more flat tires (current running total: 5)
79%
Someone shouts verbal abuse from a vehicle
27%
Something that is not the whole bike gets stolen (wheel, lights, money, phone, etc)
40%
get invited to someone's church
11%
Someone asks if you know Prince Harry
61%
Cry
19%
Get ill enough that you skip a day.
7%
Buy a new bike
45%
Meet a manifold user IRL (who I haven't met before)
78%
Meet an online friend IRL
70%
Try a new food and hate it!
82%
Try a new food and love it!
36%
Broken chain
24%
3 people you meet join Manifold to participate in this market
20%
Someone you meet joins Manifold to bet on this market and is still active on the site (betting 3+ days/week) when all options resolve
17%
Get pulled over / stopped by police [while on bicycle]

Starting on May 24th I plan to cross the USA by bicycle. What will I see/do/experience on the way?

Starting Cannon Beach OR, finishing in Virginia (probably).

Route: https://www.adventurecycling.org/routes-and-maps/adventure-cycling-route-network/transamerica-trail/

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@zsig not a great photo but they were running around a lot and I was in a hurry to get to my destination before dark!

There was an adult ginger cat hanging nearby close enough that I count it as "with" the kittens but I didn't get a pic

@draaglom how’s it going ?

@snazzlePop it's going! There's been a heatwave and high humidity has persisted, so mostly the weather has been quite unpleasant indeed (32-33c every day, but heat index of 38+, so very "monkeys paw" w.r.t the 100f question here)

The back wheel continued to raise issues - in the last couple weeks I had 3 more spokes go across two incidents.

Embarrassingly it took me way too long to realize why I was losing spokes left and right - I'd purchased/been sold a wheelset w/ a lower spoke count. I'm a bit peeved - at the tech who sold me it knowing I was touring w a decent load, and moreso at myself for just buying it w/out checking that.

anyways I have a new (32 spoke) wheelset now that I expect to last me to the end. Starting the climb into the Appalachians proper now, and the heatwave appears to be subsiding -- so it's all, as the saying goes, "coming up Milhouse"

good luck with the spoke repair!!

@KJW_01294 thanks! In fortuitous timing again it happened just as I was entering town.

@NivlacM lol. lmao. new wheel ofc (I'm fine)

@draaglom Damnnnn.

How much cargo (gear) weight are you hauling around?

@snazzlePop honestly I haven't weighed it but I don't feel like it's a huge amount. My best estimate is <=15kg incl. the panniers themselves

@draaglom spokes break more than chains! And they thought I was a madman!

@draaglom how goes the adventure?

@snazzlePop going ok! I'm well into Missouri at this point. Goddamn it's humid though! I also didn't quite anticipate just how hilly the Ozarks are despite no major mountain passes - I've been racking up consecutive days of "most altitude gained".

In betting-relevant news:

  • I saw two kittens! No mum cat though. Two little black kittens were hanging outside of a motel in KS. A local rancher's daughter was trying to catch them well into the night, I hope she succeeded!

  • I replaced my chain a little past the halfway mark. So I guess odds of a broken chain go down, absent a manufacturing issue or something

  • I also replaced my whole back wheel; my rim brakes had almost worn through the rim (!). This gave me flat #5 (something on the inside surface of the new rim)

  • I've biked 98 and 103 miles recently, so getting close to that 110 mark. not sure if another long day like that is likely soon though due to the humidity and heat.

@draaglom Thanks for the update! 🤠

Sounds like you’re really crushing it out there!

That’s wild that your rims nearly wore through like that. So you’re up to 5 flats now, all from the back tire?

I hope the new rear rim + tire are more reliable!

You previously mentioned that you might replace your front tire soon too — have you done so yet, and if not, is that still your plan?

Also curious if you’ve replaced any other components besides the chain and rear wheelset — it sounds like it might be time for new caliber brakes?

@snazzlePop oh yeah, I replaced the front tire also w a fresh schwalbe marathon

I also swapped out my pedals for something with a wider platform, the balls of my feet were regularly getting somewhat sore

The rear rim served me well, it lasted ~12 years! I didn't mean to imply it was just wear from this trip which did that, if that's what you meant re: wild

Brakes are still doing fine, I think the pads will maybe last me through the rest of the trip or so.

this seems imminent! heatwave here in KS, just barely dodged 100f temperature today.

this isn't verbal abuse but a couple of days ago at a traffic junction a guy rolled down his window and yelled, hard enough to be hoarse "hey!! That's my bike!!"

then laughed and gave me a thumbs up and a wave

10/10 would get yelled at again

exciting day! I somehow missed the severe thunderstorm warning for this area and rode right into it. At first I was having a great time watching the sunset sky either side of me lit up by truly godly lightning strikes while only sparingly getting donked by hail, but it got heavy pretty quick.

Just as I started to get properly soaked, a lady by the name of Laurie rolled up next to me in a pickup - "you look like you need a ride"

Chucked everything in the back, rode to her place and met her roommate and her cute fierce little dogs (one was absolutely shivering with fearcitement at the thunder but still made an effort to come over and bork at me to protect the pack)

chatted while the storm blew itself down a bit and they gave me a little gift to take with

really grateful! the thunderstorm turned heavy, there was no cover for miles, and it was pretty late so I'd have been riding in the dark and the rain (or waiting well past sunset for it to stop)

happy birthday to me!!

resolves:

  • ride through thunderstorm

  • Hitch a lift

  • receive a gift

@draaglom several people IRL have warned me that I'm going through tornado country in tornado season but IDK how concerned to be

@draaglom Pretty low. Even if there is a tornado warning it's not likely going to hit you.

@draaglom It’s been a crazy season, but statistically pretty low. If it gets hairy, best place is a dedicated underground storm shelter or basement. Inside a structure, bottom floor, as close to the center as possible (bathroom, closet) is next best. Worst case, if you’re straight up caught outside, find a ditch or other low lying bit of topography, lay as flat as possible face down, and protect your head and neck.

@Keeto I didn't get a pic but i saw the tail half of a big snake just leaving the road!

The section I saw was at least a meter long and I don't think I saw the fattest part, so I'd guess it was at least 2 m long and probably more like 3-4

It had a pink/rust/brick coloration which looked mostly solid (no diamonds) and I don't think I saw a rattle

Given this description o3 thinks it was a Western Coachwhip

@draaglom Bro. What happened?!

@snazzlePop nothing too dramatic! Bike and rider both unharmed. Sneaky gravelly corner where the gravel was both deeper than I thought and disguising a lateral rut. Tipped over at like 8 mph.

@draaglom glad you’re alright 🙂

@draaglom whereabouts are you now?

@snazzlePop I left Pueblo CO going east this AM

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