Starting on May 24th I plan to cross the USA by bicycle. What will I see/do/experience on the way?
Starting Cannon Beach OR, finishing in Virginia (probably).
Route: https://www.adventurecycling.org/routes-and-maps/adventure-cycling-route-network/transamerica-trail/
Update 2025-08-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve this market based on:
Cosmic Crisp apples
Kansas Bierock pastries
Update 2025-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The ride reached the Atlantic at Yorktown, VA, but events still count while the creator is "on tour".
The timeframe extends until they board their flight home.
Activities in the next couple of days in Washington, DC and New York City are included.
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So I've been holding off on resolving these because,
I took this photo on the morning of Aug 14th; 146.8 lb is 66.59 kg. However, this is wearing shoes/clothes/etc because it was in a hotel gym, while my baseline 65kg was just in underwear, and I think the extra clothes I'm wearing here are 370g + 120g + 136g + 54g + 200g (phone) = 0.88kg. So this is pretty close to a 65kg measurement I think, or a little bit over. It's also a post-breakfast measurement rather than a pre-breakfast measurement, so arguably another +0.5-1kg relative to the baseline measurement. Overall, I think you can make a reasonable case for this being either 'above' or 'below' my starting weight.
I hoped to weigh myself again to get a 'tie break' but weirdly I've not had access to another set of scales yet, and it becomes increasingly less valid as a measurement as I get further from the end of the trip.
It's now 10 days since I reached the Atlantic so I can't be bothered to wait any longer to resolve; resolving based on my subjective guess informed by the points above.
@TheAllMemeingEye maybe! for now I'm all tripped out but it was a lot of fun, I might do it again in the future. It's tough though to take so much time out of work etc!
If I do it again, I'd probably choose somewhere a bit more challenging re: language/culture; e.g. I've never been to south america, so that does have a certain appeal.
You will 40% end the trip at >65kg and 80% end the trip at <65kg. Therefore, you either end the trip with >= 120% probability (e.g., there is a 1/5 chance that a copy of you gets created during the trip) or you end the trip at exactly 65kg with -20% probability (the implications of that I am not brave enough to imagine).
@snazzlePop On balance I'll just resolve this yes, I'm >= 90% sure that I did. I wanted to have a fun list of all the things I ate, but hey ho. I think this probably resolved the day I finished transiting the Lolo pass and went up to Missoula, as I underate the day before in the pass and gorged on a huge deep pan pizza (as well as a bunch of other stuff) to catch up.
@snazzlePop I actually only used my bike lock about 3-4 times on the entire trip; I almost exclusively felt very safe. Who's going to steal a bike in small town America, where nobody even cycles?
The biggest risk was locking it up in lower manhattan for about 4h yesterday afternoon, and I do think it was an appreciable risk (e.g. 5%+) , but I have a good lock and it's not a very valuable bike.
@shankypanky resolved this 'early'; AFAIK nobody I met joined Manifold. I did tell a few people about it (e.g. asking where I might see a bear so that option could resolve), but mostly the natural flow of the conversation with people I met went in other directions.
@snazzlePop this one had an interesting distribution; right at the start (like 2 days in) I had a near miss in Oregon; I was climbing very slowly up a narrow, shoulderless, cliffside section of SR-130 and a pickup decided to buzz me going over the limit (into incoming traffic) with about 6 inches clearance on either side. If anyone involved had flinched, a lot of people could have died. Then, mostly nothing until biking through NYC and chaotic taxis/mopeds.
https://manifold.markets/draaglom/short-fuse-what-will-happen-to-my-b?r=ZHJhYWdsb20
Short fuse: will my stuff make it home ok?
@Eric_WVGG it's certainly possible to do it in less time; there's an annual race in which participants complete it in approximately 15-16 days. But that's both beyond my physical capabilities and also just doesn't sound so fun :)