Will OpenAI opensource a 12B parameter model by the end of 2023 with performance matching the original GPT-3?
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Jan 1
14%
chance

12Bish, anywhere from 10-15B is fine. Lower is also cool, a 1B parameter model that matches performance will resolve yes.

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Issc avatar
Issc

OpenAi doesn’t usually drop parameter counts right?

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93predicts NO

@Issc would be hard to argue it's open source if we can't figure out the parameter count

Issc avatar
Issc

@dmayhem93 Has openAi ever been open source?

Issc avatar
Issc

@dmayhem93 I get it’s the resolution criteria it just seems very unlikely - OpenAi is super conservative with what they release

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93predicts NO

@Issc well the market is at 24% so make your free mana

Issc avatar
Isscbought Ṁ50 of NO

@dmayhem93 Bets placed

sucralose avatar
Michael Skybapredicts NO

@Issc They've released some non-LLMs like Whisper and CLIP. The last LLM was GPT-2. https://github.com/openai
I didn't think it was likely either but Mira buying ~1,500 makes me reconsider

Issc avatar
Isscpredicts NO

@sucralose I think they might just be trying to spike the market idk

All good points actually - still sitting on a no because I think they aiming more towards the safe and closed environment especially with regulation kicking up

Mira avatar
Mirabought Ṁ100 of YES

@dmayhem93 20B is close enough right?

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93predicts NO

@Mira not for this market 😔

rockenots avatar
rockenotsbought Ṁ100 of NO

@dmayhem93 Max is 15B?

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93predicts NO

@rockenots rounded yes, mostly to account for the awkward reporting of model weights that occasionally excludes embedding layers, or rounds it.

Tomoffer avatar
Tom Offerpredicts YES

@dmayhem93 clearly I should have read the description, but having too many parameters seems like an odd complaint

dmayhem93 avatar
dmayhem93predicts NO

@Tomoffer Not sure what you mean here, this is a bet on (OpenAI dropping new open source LLMs) AND (OpenAI is able to drop a model that matches and/or beats their previous GPT-3 that is at most 1/10th of it's size).

Tomoffer avatar
Tom Offerpredicts YES

@dmayhem93 ok I was also missing some context then. My bad!

Mirabought Ṁ1,000 ofYES
Dwaxe avatar
Dwaxe

What does @Mira know that the rest of us don't?

sucralose avatar
Michael Skyba

@Dwaxe How to falsely spike markets as a prank