OpenAI releases open-source model exceeding 8B parameters by EOY2026?
13
100Ṁ360
2026
90%
chance

Resolution criteria:

- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases any model with >8B parameters publicly accessible (e.g., on Hugging Face) without manual verification or screening

- For MoE models, sum of expert weight counts applies

- Must be genuinely open-source with weights freely available

-Training code or data is not required to qualify

- Resolves NO if no qualifying model is released by December 31, 2026

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Will an open weight model count if e.g. training code and data is withheld?

@TotalVerb yes, inference only is fine

@TotalVerb updated the description

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