OpenAI releases open-source model exceeding 8B parameters by EOY2026?
14
100Ṁ490
2026
95%
chance

Resolution criteria:

- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases any model with >8B parameters publicly accessible (e.g., on Hugging Face) without manual verification or screening

- For MoE models, sum of expert weight counts applies

- Must be genuinely open-source with weights freely available

-Training code or data is not required to qualify

- Resolves NO if no qualifying model is released by December 31, 2026

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy