OpenAI releases open-source model exceeding 8B parameters by EOY2026?
15
100Ṁ1187resolved Aug 5
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases any model with >8B parameters publicly accessible (e.g., on Hugging Face) without manual verification or screening
- For MoE models, sum of expert weight counts applies
- Must be genuinely open-source with weights freely available
-Training code or data is not required to qualify
- Resolves NO if no qualifying model is released by December 31, 2026
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ61 | |
2 | Ṁ17 | |
3 | Ṁ16 | |
4 | Ṁ15 | |
5 | Ṁ7 |
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
OpenAI releases a new flagship model by November 15, 2025?
17% chance
OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?
55% chance
An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?
20% chance
Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?
28% chance
Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?
79% chance
How many parameters does the OpenAI Sora model unveiled in February 2024 have?
Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, in 2025?
35% chance
If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?
66% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
14% chance
Will any 10 trillion+ parameter language model that follows instructions be released to the public before 2026?
33% chance