Will Donald Trump win a majority of the vote (>50%) in these states?
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Plus
182
แน€44k
Jan 1
96%
Arizona
97%
Nevada
98.6%
Michigan
97%
Pennsylvania
99%
Wisconsin
Resolved
YES
North Carolina
Resolved
YES
Georgia
Resolved
YES
Florida
Resolved
YES
Texas

Resolves as the states are called by the AP/NYTimes. In very tight calls i'll wait for the official state results after recounts and court challenges

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Just realized while resolving Trump won Texas by 15 points jfc

bought แน€50 North Carolina YES

@snazzlePop i'll hold off on PA/MI/WI until tomorrow in case anything changes. Doesn't hurt

@dlin007 Looks like MI and WI are under 50% now! We may have to wait for official results.

opened a แน€774 Arizona NO at 60% order

@binarypigeon would you be interested in filling my limit order

Third party vote will probably be lower than 2020. I would be surprised if Jill Stein breaks 1% nationwide.

reposted

current state of the market, which is curious considering he's going to break 50% in all of these states

bought แน€100 Wisconsin YES

@dlin007 Noted.

bought แน€50 Arizona NO

trump winning 49-48 or the like resolves as no, right?

@yaakovgrunsfeld correct. he has to win a majority of the statewide vote

bought แน€50 Georgia YES

And if the AP/NYTimes is later shown to be mistaken in calling states, as they've been in past presidential elections, how will that be corrected?

@JeffBerman

> AP/NYTimes is later shown to be mistaken in calling states, as they've been in past

any example(s)?

@dlin007

AP was one of the outlets that called the 2000 Florida election for Gore, later retracted.

@JeffBerman


> In very tight calls i'll wait for the official state results after recounts and court challenges


that would have been covered by this part of the description

this is extremely skewed from the manifold politics map lol

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