Nate's model: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Sample forecast for today, 20 Aug

Even though Nate's model is probabilistic, "calling" a race correctly for the purposes of this market means having the eventual winner's odds of winning highest in the final forecast e.g If RFK Jr. is at 50.9% to win Michigan and he does win by any amount that is a correct call. Conversely if Harris wins Michigan, that will be considered an incorrect call (i know)

Nate's model also includes a csv export of the raw data which will be used as a secondary precision source incase any states are exactly 50/50.

Swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan

The market will resolve after state results are unambiguously final and court challenges are exhausted