The Polish-American voting bloc has a strong track record of voting for the winner of presidential elections: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote#Presidential_voting_results
Resolves YES iff ≥50% of votes cast by Polish Americans in the 2024 US Presidential Election are cast for the winner. To be established by polling / studies, e.g. from the sources currently referenced in the lined wikipedia page. I will use my best judgement and consult with the manifold community on resolution.
Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market deadline has been extended due to unavailability of updated data for 2024.
If no data is reported by midnight on May 1, 2025, the market will be resolved as N/A.
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@traders I've extended the market again because there's still no data. The researcher who published the numbers for 2020 told me he would like to collect numbers for 2024 as well, but unclear if this'll happen.
If no news by midnight on May 1 2025, I'll resolve N/A -- is that alright with y'all?
@PlainBG it's definitely possible imo. The most recent data cited by Wikipedia are post-election polling