Bottom line up front: I'm very interested in how Manifold will evolve this year toward this "cash prizes via sweepstakes" initiative. Most initial answers come from Manifold's official May 1st announcement about this initiative.
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Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen any open-ended markets specifically focused on how Manifold will work once it rolls out its cash prizes sweepstakes (i.e. the Pivot):
@strutheo's 🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? market seems to be more about the Pivot announcement itself and less about the implementation,
@Joshua's What will be the outcome of the Pivot? market is more about the high level outcome/success/failure of the implementation of cash prizes sweepstakes
@Simon74fe's If Manifold announces real money trading as part of their upcoming pivot, what will be true about it when it launches? market assumes real money trading, which I don't think the sweepstakes model qualifies for,
and my In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year? market is specifically in reference to comparison with Fliff,
just to name a few.
For ease of resolution, answers will resolve YES if they are true at any point prior to January 1st, 2025, regardless of whether they are definitively related to implementation of the cash prizes via sweepstakes initiative and regardless of whether they are implemented and then undone prior to 2025.
Names in answers referring to a thing, (i.e. "Mana" for play money, "Prize Points" for sweepstakes prizes) should be understood as representative of the underlying thing unless the answer is specifically about naming of the thing. i.e. if there's an answer like "Prize Points are redeemable for cash" and Prize Points are renamed to Win Points or something else, I'll update the answer to say "Win Points are redeemable for cash".
If an answer is unclear, ask in the comments. I reserve the right to reword answers myself to make them clearer.
I will use my judgment to resolve or not resolve subjective answers as I see fit, or N/A them where I feel resolving either YES or NO would be inappropriate or unduly unfair. Also, I want this to be a high-quality market about this important initiative, so I may N/A submissions for any reason.
Comments are encouraged to help notify me that answers can be resolved and to facilitate speedy resolution. I reserve the right to resolve NO any answer for which sufficient evidence is not provided.
@dglid This needs an answer related to having an actual accounting system in place to track "money". Currently the "money" is just "whatever someone invented".
@dglid Manifold's 'balance' has no 'accounting system', your balance is just a number. It can change with absolutely no record or explanation. Will they add an actual accounting system to better track balances?
@dglid I think this is very unlikely, based on what I have read/observed.
@nikki I don’t believe this has actually happened yet so will leave this open until this month’s league closes and the prize points are actually awarded.
To avoid the need for manual dashboards like https://manifold.markets/strutheo/what-will-be-true-about-spice-the-n#yy2jep5axmd