MANIFOLD
Will @Aella resolve her closed, unresolved markets (as of the creation of this market) before 2024?
20
Ṁ310Ṁ9.5k
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
YES

@Aella has 3 closed markets [1][2][3][screenshot] that have not been resolved as of 27th of October. Will all three of these be resolved by the end of the year? (GMT)

This market is only about the three linked markets. Other unresolved markets she might have at close are of no concern to this market.

Market context
Aella
Please Resolve
Senpai Please Notice Me
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angry better call saul GIF

2/3 done, just the oldest one to go.

@dgga oh god what if it's bait LMAO. I think she's capable of that

@dgga That old one seems harder to resolve than the others! She has to check not just one correlation, but the correlation between anxiety and every fetish.

@Tumbles There is ~700 mana up for grabs right now if she were to do that and flip the market right now.

predictedNO
Surprise Wow GIF by Tate McRae

Aella resolved one of her markets today. Not the ones needed for this question, but uh, it's a sign?

@Tumbles

I Dont Think So No Way GIF

predictedNO

@Aella

Knock Knock Doihavethesause GIF by Ski Mask The Slump God

Oh no......... I have almost 10k tied up in Aella markets. I hope this isn't how I learn a valuable lesson.

predictedNO
Who Knows Idk GIF

Possible arb with:

https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/how-old-will-the-oldest-popular-clo

How old will the oldest popular, closed, but unresolved market be on Nov 1?
Defining "popular" arbitrarily as >= 20 traders, and ignoring non-predictive markets, how long will the longest-closed such market have been closed for? I'll look at this list and anything posted in the comments. I'll ignore any market with an explicit statement in the description or comment from the creator that it is intended to remain in the closed state without resolution for a well-defined period, if that period has not ended. Currently there's a market that's been closed since 2022 without clear reason. I'll evaluate manually as close to the close time as I can. Or defer to the first trustworthy-ish info posted in the comments after close time. Or I'll hand this off to a script if someone posts one I like. Trustworthy-ish users are also welcome to resolve this as soon after close as they can get to it, if they want.

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