Resolves NO if:

1. USA or Iran directly engage each other militarily (does not have to be full out war but an assassination, a few non-military boats sunk or something similar will not be enough either. Looking for something that greatly exceeds the May-June 2019 Gulf of Oman incidents in hostility. Could be subjective but I'll try to be as fair as possible)

   or

2. The Pope dies or otherwise resigns

   or

3. Full ceasefire on all theaters of war in the Russia-Ukraine conflict announced (EDIT: both parties must actually honor it in good faith before I resolve)

   or

4. Someone in the Trump Cabinet gets fired/removed/replaced

Otherwise Nothing Ever Happens and this market resolves YES.