Resolves NO if:
USA or Iran directly engage each other militarily (does not have to be full out war but an assassination, a few non-military boats sunk or something similar will not be enough either. Looking for something that greatly exceeds the May-June 2019 Gulf of Oman incidents in hostility. Could be subjective but I'll try to be as fair as possible)
or
The Pope dies or otherwise resigns
or
Full ceasefire on all theaters of war in the Russia-Ukraine conflict announced (EDIT: both parties must actually honor it in good faith before I resolve)
or
Someone in the Trump Cabinet gets fired/removed/replaced
Otherwise Nothing Ever Happens and this market resolves YES.
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Just as a heads-up, the current "ceasefire" absolutely does not count for the purposes of thia market unless a) Russia actually honors it, and b) it is extended beyond just 30 hours of reinforcing frontlines.
For now it's 100% political gesturing by Putin.
EDIT: I have sold my stake since the resolution may get more subjective than I'd expected
Since the Easter "ceasefire," so far, has not been a ceasefire at all, it will not count. If both parties continue/engage in an extension, though, I wil have to admit Something Happened in April and resolve NO.
Pretty sure it's Not Ever Happening, though
