Resolution criteria

Avatar: Fire and Ash has grossed $566 million worldwide as of late December 2025. The market resolves YES if the film earns more than $1.1 billion worldwide by January 4, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official box office tracking from sources such as Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/), Deadline, or Variety's box office reports. The deadline is January 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC.

Background

Avatar: Fire and Ash was released theatrically in the United States on December 19, 2025. The film opened to a $345 million global opening, with $257 million from the international box office. The first two Avatar films earned above $2 billion at the global box office, and Disney spent a massive $350 million to produce and roughly $150 million to promote. Avatar installments are known for box office longevity, with neither 2009's Avatar nor The Way of Water having particularly strong opening weekends ahead of Christmas, but both became two of the highest-grossing movies in history with $2.9 billion and $2.3 billion, respectively.

Considerations

The film has a compressed theatrical window before the January 4 deadline—only 16 days from its December 19 release. Hong Kong will not release until January 8, after the resolution date. Avatar films typically have extended theatrical runs well into the new year, but this market's tight deadline means the film must achieve exceptional performance during the holiday period to reach $1.1 billion.