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MANIFOLD
How much will I weigh on June 14
15
Ṁ1kṀ6.9k
resolved Jun 15
Resolved
170-172.9
100%12%
170-172.9
1.5%
Below 165
9%
165 - 169.9
32%
173-175.9
35%
176-178.9
5%
179-181.9
1.8%
182-184.9
2%
185-189.9
1.3%
190 or more

I weighed myself today and got 185.6 lbs. I intend to try to cut at a rate of 1 lb per week for the next 10 weeks. My goal is improving performance in bodyweight sports (climbing and calisthenics). If it's easy maybe I'll cut more, but who knows whether I'll be successful at all.

Some additional past context: https://manifold.markets/dayoshi/what-body-fat-do-i-have

  • I will weigh myself at between 8 and 11 pm pst over the 7 days leading up to June 14 (including the day itself), and resolve this market to the average.

  • I will not transact on this market.

  • No promises about how much it little additional information I reveal before this market resolves.

  • If I miss a day of weighing, I'll average whichever days in the last week I did weigh in on.

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Final avg of 6/8-6/14 inclusive was 172.94 which I rounded to 172.9

For anyone at manifest who trades this: Last night I weighed in at ~1 lb below the avg over the last 6 days, so shade your guess up accordingly.

Update: My evening weights over the last 7 days

  • Mean: 179.9 lbs

  • Std dev: 2.0 lbs

I was offered some retatrutide but declined it since I've never cut before and am interested in how it will go unassisted.

Evening weight is too variable, I'm unlikely to bet a lot.

@Eliza Yeah morning weighing is definitely better but unfortunately I forget to do it too often.