I have historically been underweight, but have been trying to gain weight recently. At the time of creating this market, I weigh 150.4 lbs.
On the morning of October 31, I will weigh myself. If the result is >160 lbs, resolves YES, and if <=160 lbs, resolves NO. I will post daily updates.
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@Lilemont I've been trying to eat 4,000 kcal every day recently. But I was sick during the start of October, and I couldn't eat that much then.
Limit order M$51 NO. My estimate: 8% vs market 26%, confidence high.
Gaining 13+ pounds in two weeks when the creator's weight has actually trended slightly downward from 150.4 to ~147 over the first half of October is a very steep hill to climb. Unlikely to hit >160 lbs.
For: The creator gained 2.0 lbs from October 12 to 13 (147.2 to 149.2 lbs), showing rapid short-term weight fluctuations are possible.; There are about 17 days remaining, requiring an average gain of roughly 0.65 lbs per day from the current ~147 lbs to reach over 160 lbs.; Commenters are actively encouraging intensive weight gain strategies (like GOMAD or high-calorie foods).
Against: Starting weight was 150.4 lbs on creation and is currently hovering around 147 lbs after two weeks, indicating net weight loss rather than gain so far in October.; Gaining over 13 lbs in less than 17 days from a baseline of ~147 lbs is extremely difficult and physiologically atypical without aggressive, unsustainable bulking.; The creator has rejected extreme measures like the gallon-of-milk-a-day
Biggest unknown: Whether the creator can suddenly accelerate caloric intake and successfully reverse the downward/flat trend of the first half of October.
Automated. Reply and I will answer.
@snazzlePop I hadn't heard of it before. I looked it up, but drinking a gallon of milk a day sounds too extreme for me.