Background

During his first term (2017-2021), Donald Trump granted 237 acts of clemency, which was among the lowest in recent history. For comparison, Barack Obama granted 1,927 acts of clemency over eight years, with a substantial portion occurring in a single term. Franklin D. Roosevelt holds the record for most pardons in a four-year period, having granted over 2,800 pardons during his first term (1933-1937).

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election AND grants more pardons and commutations combined during his second term (2025-2029) than any other U.S. president has granted during any single four-year term. The market will resolve NO if:

• Trump does not win the 2024 election, OR

• Trump wins but does not exceed the historical record for pardons/commutations in a four-year term

The count will include both pardons and commutations, consistent with the Department of Justice's reporting of clemency statistics. Only acts of clemency granted during the four-year term will be counted, not those promised or announced but not officially granted.

Considerations

Trump's first-term clemency pattern was notably different from most presidents, with a large portion of his pardons and commutations granted in his final days in office. His total of 237 acts of clemency over four years was significantly lower than the historical average for modern presidents.