Will Iran launch air strikes anywhere inside Iran by the end of 2024?
Basic
24
Ṁ9749
resolved Oct 28
Resolved
YES

Artillery doesn’t count. Only large payloads delivered by rocket or dropped from an airplane.

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Nevermind on the attack being in Pakistan

@datachef @mods this resolved incorrectly, says large payloads delivered by airplane or rocket.

@PatrickMcCann Yeah this is kinda blurry, when does a rocket-guiding system become a drone (e.g. is a drone guided missile just a fancy artillery? or is it unique?) Did they launch it from a plane?

I don't really know how to answer or what to do here, leaving it in mod queue but commenting to be clued in

@Gen @datachef Let's clear this up:

  1. The title is about Iran launching airstrikes inside Iran. Data Chef has clarified in the comments that, yes, it is about Iran launching air strikes in Iran, and NOT about Israel launching air strikes in Iran.

  2. @Abaoji and Tehran Times have brought evidence that Iran used a drone strike to take out a group within Iran. I cannot find an additional source that confirms this Tehran Times is a legitimate story, but I also have no reason to doubt it.

  3. The market creator Data Chef resolved Yes based on this info.

I don't see anything here that would lead to overturning the creator's original resolution. Based on the site guidelines, creators have broad discretion to rule on their markets and to overturn them would usually require that they were acting in bad faith OR had a fundamental misunderstanding of what happened. In this case, it seems like Data Chef is able to decide what does and does not count as an air strike.

This does seem like the correct moderator decision given the site guidelines about creator discretion - I don't necessarily agree with how the creator used that discretion and I think he should at least clarify his thoughts in the comments given the ambiguity, but it's not for the mods to overturn it.

October 27th IRGC carries out drone strike on Jaish al-Adl separatists in Sistan-Baluchestan. This is an Iranian air strike within the borders of Iran.

Source:

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/505531/Iran-mourns-terror-victims-targets-suspects-in-retaliation

Deleted

@PatrickMcCann It was in Sistan-Baluchestan just outside Zahedan.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Doesn’t make much sense for this to be lower than the market about Tehran only…

bought Ṁ500 NO

@datachef That's about Israel launching airstrikes. This one's title says Iran launching airstrikes.

Make a new market for the question you intended; don't change this one.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@BenjaminCosman man I was half asleep when I made that haha.

@datachef I placed my bets based on the very clear wording. You have completely changed the meaning of the market with the new wording. Change it back or get a moderator to N/A it; it is not fair to take my mana because you made a mistake.

I will add that you doubled down on the mistake - I made my initial investment, then you responded to the clarification below with "definitely inside", indicating that you'd read the request for clarification and were standing by the wording, so then I made a second investment.

@BenjaminCosman chill bro. Nobody is taking anything from you. I will leave this as Iran but I definitely originally intended Israel as I made the is market minutes after another related market about air strikes in Tehran.

@BenjaminCosman he asked for clarification on inside vs outside, not Israel vs Iran. So my response was accurate and I am unclear what you are complaining about??

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Panfilo what action are you looking for here?

@mattyb it was accident to have Iran in the question I had meant Israel and someone else complained when I tried to fix it so I left it.

@mattyb there are several scenarios where this could happen. Look at what happened to the US in 1979.

@datachef do you want me to n/a this and start again? i can’t really do much else

@mattyb it’s possible Israel may need to refuel by landing in the desert somewhere in route to the target so in that case, it’s not entirely unthinkable this could resolve yes

@mattyb I don't know what you were called in for. For what it's worth, speaking as the biggest NO holder I have no objection to this getting N/A'd (and I even suggested it higher in the thread); I just objected to the author's action of significantly modifying the question after bets were placed.

the maker was showing uncertainty about NAing and I thought it might clear things up

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