Will Iran launch air strikes anywhere inside Iran by the end of 2024?
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24
Ṁ8174
Jan 1
10%
chance

Artillery doesn’t count. Only large payloads delivered by rocket or dropped from an airplane.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

Doesn’t make much sense for this to be lower than the market about Tehran only…

bought Ṁ500 NO

@datachef That's about Israel launching airstrikes. This one's title says Iran launching airstrikes.

Make a new market for the question you intended; don't change this one.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@BenjaminCosman man I was half asleep when I made that haha.

@datachef I placed my bets based on the very clear wording. You have completely changed the meaning of the market with the new wording. Change it back or get a moderator to N/A it; it is not fair to take my mana because you made a mistake.

I will add that you doubled down on the mistake - I made my initial investment, then you responded to the clarification below with "definitely inside", indicating that you'd read the request for clarification and were standing by the wording, so then I made a second investment.

@BenjaminCosman chill bro. Nobody is taking anything from you. I will leave this as Iran but I definitely originally intended Israel as I made the is market minutes after another related market about air strikes in Tehran.

@BenjaminCosman he asked for clarification on inside vs outside, not Israel vs Iran. So my response was accurate and I am unclear what you are complaining about??

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Panfilo what action are you looking for here?

@mattyb it was accident to have Iran in the question I had meant Israel and someone else complained when I tried to fix it so I left it.

@mattyb there are several scenarios where this could happen. Look at what happened to the US in 1979.

@datachef do you want me to n/a this and start again? i can’t really do much else

@mattyb it’s possible Israel may need to refuel by landing in the desert somewhere in route to the target so in that case, it’s not entirely unthinkable this could resolve yes

@mattyb I don't know what you were called in for. For what it's worth, speaking as the biggest NO holder I have no objection to this getting N/A'd (and I even suggested it higher in the thread); I just objected to the author's action of significantly modifying the question after bets were placed.

the maker was showing uncertainty about NAing and I thought it might clear things up

anywhere inside of Iran, or anywhere outside of Iran?

bought Ṁ250 NO

Well at this point the market very clearly says "inside Iran"; dunno if that's what was intended but it's definitely too late to change it.

@BenjaminCosman always be careful betting on markets with “erroneous” titles. i’ve had market creators change it and bet the other way

@mattyb definitely inside. If it was outside it would have resolved 500 times by now.