Who will win?! - Main (parliamentary) elections 2024 N Macedonia, 08 MAY 2024
8
98
765
May 8
17%
Coalition "За Европска индина“ (parliamentary position party, SDSM and other parties)
13%
Coalition "Европски фронт“ (parliamentary position party - DUI and other parties)
Resolved
YES
Coalition "Твоја Македонија" (parliamentary opposition party - VMRO-DPMNE and other parties)
Resolved
NO
Political Party "Левица" (parliamentary opposition party - the Left)
Resolved
NO
Coalition "VLEN/ВРЕДИ“ (parliamentary opposition parties)
Resolved
NO
Coalition "Храбро за Македонија“ (parliamentary opposition party - GROM and other parties)
Resolved
NO
Movement "ЗНАМ" (opposition that fractured from government party)


The main elections (parliamentary) of N Macedonia are about to be held on 08-MAY-2024 (Wednesday).

The country is divided to 6 election units, where each contributes by 20 elected members of the Собрание (Parliament), with total 120 elected MPs and 61 needed to attain simple majority in order to elect a prime minister.

Here we are interested in who will get most of the MPs (members of the parliament). Although it is possible that one voting option gets more votes and less MPs, the question will be resolved for the option that gets the highest number of MPs. If there are two options that share the first place (for instance, two options get 39 MP each, while the others have less), then both will be options shall be resolved to 100%. Second place shall be resolved to 30%.

The results of the elections should be declared by 09-MAY-2024, with possibility for revote in case of dispute (if that has ofc impact), which would take two more weeks. So, if there is a revote announced, that would not change the party with most MPs, it will be resolved at earliest date. The market will be resolved upon undisputed conclusion announced by the state electoral commission ( https://www.sec.mk/ ).


Not all candidates are placed on this list, as there are over 10 options, while according to the opinion of the author and pooling, all of the options that can get MP are listed. New options might be added upon request in the comments, given that it appears on the voting paper (https://candidatelist.sec.mk/CandidateList )

Some fresh info and opinion pools available on English https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_North_Macedonian_parliamentary_election

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the second place race is interesting ; namely, Coalition "За Европска индина“ (parliamentary position party, SDSM and other parties) has more votes, but probably one MP less than Coalition "Европски фронт“ (parliamentary position party - DUI and other parties). Since there is time for appeals, the second place shall be determined upon official verification of the mandates ...

the first place is unambiguous (meaning that even if the uncounted votes are given to the second place, they cannot have more votes that the most voted party so far), what we do not know is who's going to be second and third place, so at this point only the first place shall be resolved, and for the second, i'll update when there will be meaningful conclusion tomorrow or in the next few days