X (formerly Twitter) has been banned in Brazil and the bill that performs the ban states that people who use VPNs or other means to access X while it remains banned will be fined a value of R$ 50.000,00 per day (roughly 8.900 USD).
This value corresponds to about 16 months of the average Brazilian salary and has been criticized for being excessive.
This market seeks to predict how many people will be effectively fined.
This market will resolve to the number of people who can be determined to have been served a notice of fine which is explicitly stated to be due to illegal access to X in the year 2024. The fines do not need to be paid by the people - proof that a Brazilian court has emitted a notice of fine is sufficient.
https://x.com/marcelvanhattem/status/1829729347873227190
Some congresspeople already publicly boasting of using X through a VPN
@FranklinBaldo Alexandre already step back from that order. And even if it was the case, there is no one to enforce.
@FranklinBaldo the item that was suspended was item 2. The fines are established in item 3, so at least theoretically they still apply. https://noticias.stf.jus.br/postsnoticias/stf-determina-suspensao-do-x-antigo-twitter-em-todo-o-territorio-nacional-2/