Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) injures at least one civilian by January 31, 2026. "Injury" includes any physical harm caused by ICE agents during enforcement operations, including but not limited to: gunshot wounds, injuries from use of force (tasers, pepper spray, tear gas, physical force), vehicle-related injuries, or injuries sustained during detention or raids.

Resolution will be determined by credible news reports, official statements, court filings, or documented incidents from law enforcement agencies. The market resolves NO if no such injuries are documented by January 31, 2026.

Background

In the last five months alone, immigration officers have shot at least nine people, and 2025 is on record as the deadliest year for immigrants in ICE custody in more than two decades. 16 shooting incidents have resulted in four deaths and at least seven injuries since Trump's second term began. On January 7, 2026, an ICE officer shot and killed 37-year-old Renee Nicole Good during an incident in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The ICE and Border Patrol shootings show a pattern that policing experts say is alarming: officers firing into cars and injuring and killing drivers. Following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025 as part of President Trump's immigration policy, ICE became the largest and most well-funded federal law enforcement agency in U.S. history.

Considerations

From January 21, 2025 – January 7, 2026, ICE law enforcement officers experienced 66 vehicular attacks against them, compared to only two during the same time period the previous year. This context is relevant as DHS has cited increased threats to officers as justification for enforcement tactics, though the public has begun questioning the credibility of some federal government claims about assaults, with prosecutors failing to secure indictments in several high-profile cases.