See https://neurosciencenews.com/stress-antidepressant-23193/
YES if he explicitly recommends such a medication for treatment, or gives a >20% probability that any group of people should use this kind of medicine as a treatment, or if Scott himself thinks this market should resolve YES, or if an LLM thinks an endorsement has happened based on the prompt below.
This includes if that condition is already true and I just don't know about it yet.
NO if the market closes and that condition has not been met.
If any statement is ambiguous, I'll use a language model such as GPT-4 to arbitrate, using the following prompt (temperature=0):
"Scott Alexander is a writer and psychiatrist. Scott has written the following:
<text>
Does this passage include an endorsement of a Delta-Opioid Agonist used to treat depression?"
1,000
3.00