We're playing as black this time. Check the game board at https://lichess.org/sLmZPb9nTcNv
Lichess analysis: https://lichess.org/analysis/rnbqk2r/ppp2ppp/3b1n2/4p1N1/8/2P3P1/P2PPPBP/RNBQ1RK1_b_kq_-_0_7?color=black
This is a "Policy" market. The "Stake" market is
You can suggest any move here, but in order to vote on a move you need to be holding YES in the stake market.
In order to vote, you should make a comment that says "!VOTE <move>". Only your latest vote counts. I'll randomly select a suggested move, weighted by the number of YES shares in the stake market held by the users who voted for it. The precise evaluation time will be "some point soon after this market closes" but I'm not committing to any particular time.
This market resolves to the chosen move, and that move will be used for the continuation of the game.
"Resign" is a valid move.
Previous move:
1,000
3.00So high again! Four of the last five moves have random numbers above the 85th percentile. If uniformly random I’d expect that happens with probability 5*0.15^4*0.85 =0.215% (1 in 465 times).
@A I think this is a concern, to say the least. Do we have sampling data from the random bot for such high ranges (last 3 around 130k, the other near 3k)?
It's not a REAL random number generator until someone accuses you of being biased somehow
I tested 100 calls with randomly generated seeds and got this distribution:
Code at https://antonpaquin-scratch.s3.amazonaws.com/fairly_random_distribution.ipynb
There's still a bit of room for error if the seeds are biased, but AFAICT the fairlyrandom bot is pulling them from manifold-generated comment IDs. Plus, I believe algorithmic assumption that it's impossible to know how to bias the seed until the drand round is published.
@citrinitas Thanks, this looks good. Just wanna make clear I’m not accusing anything, just making an observation on the likelihood of the last several results.
@citrinitas your random number is: 114000
Salt: xOE8ONZEmHCghbGbacue, round: 2648740 (signature 90ea0de71742da5b58abf0094b90a804836d3275453f535d41eed4cfa1423a656dd797b372c04b7464936c128085e9e50de3f118ed46f036acf1f1b20fc71e1213742cc3d2bd21a1bc5b8baad87dd42f95e4bc6087a24c35a9ba404932f02363)
@citrinitas you asked for a random integer between 1 and 129265, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 2648738 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2648740, salt: xOE8ONZEmHCghbGbacue.
@AlexLiesman voted 0-0 (weight 174)
@deagol voted h6 (weight 136)
@jack voted h6 (weight 128955)
Totals:
0-0: 174
h6: 129091
To be chosen from a random draw 1-129265
1-174 = 0-0
175-129265 = h6