Tracking predictions from the podcast Oh No, Ross and Carrie! episode 399. Transcript available at https://maximumfun.org/transcripts/oh-no-ross-and-carrie/transcript-oh-no-ross-and-carrie-ep-399-ross-carrie-and-psychics-predict-2024-cancer-cures-and-election-edition/
Carrie Poppy: [...] And specifically, he said that “America is going to get quite a big earthquake. It’ll go along the West Coast and as far as Mexico City.” He says, “I don’t see everything collapsing, but I feel there is a big one coming this year.” Yep.
Ross Blocher: Okay. That’s also specific. Alright!
I will resolve according to their evaluation in 2025 ("No" for a zero on their scale, "N/A" for one, and "Yes" for two)
With the podcast ending, I can no longer simply defer to the host's judgements for the resolution. Please vote in this poll if you have thoughts on how I should resolve these markets:
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
If there is no earthquake bigger/closer to Mexico City than the California earthquake before the end of 2024, this will resolve as NO
The earthquake must reach as far as Mexico City to qualify for a YES resolution
The creator will try to avoid N/A resolutions
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
An earthquake with an epicenter near a west coast city that is felt in Mexico City will count as YES, even without damage in Mexico City
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I think we have a YES.
Disclaimer: I hold YES shares.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75095651/executive
@traders my resolution criteria for this market failed to account for the possibility that we wouldn't get ratings from Ross and Carrie, but with the podcast having ended that now seems pretty likely. Please vote in this poll to let me know if you'd prefer me to use my judgement instead, or just resolve this market N/A.
Either way, I will not trade in this market.
@cibyr Would you be willing to weigh in and announce how you will treat the California earthquake that happened yesterday? I'm not sure if the lack of a resolution right now means that you're not counting it or if it means that you haven't reviewed it yet.
@Quroe I understand that it's the biggest earthquake California has had in a while, but it sure doesn't match the "as far as Mexico City" part of the prediction. That's at best a 1 on the ONRAC scale.
I will try to avoid N/As in resolving these questions, so if there's nothing bigger/closer before the end of the year I intend to resolve this as NO.
@Quroe I would count an earthquake (with an epicenter near a west coast city) felt in Mexico City as YES even if there is no damage in Mexico City
It's good that you're deferring to the judgement of the folks that call this "specific", because it's isn't.
An example of specific prediction would be "an earthquake with epicenter anywhere within 100km from the coastline of California, Oregon or Washington and also causes sufficient damage anywhere in Mexico City that it makes the local news and can be unambiguously attributed to the quake". There are many specific predictions one can make from poorly-specified ones, this is just an example.