Will there be an orbital rocket launch from Australia before the end of 2024?
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22
Ṁ2447
Jan 1
14%
chance

Resolves YES on any orbital rocket launch from a launch site located in an Australian state or territory, including external territories, before the end of 2024.

"Orbital rocket launch" means a launch intended to reach orbit, or nearly so, so as to demonstrate obital capabilities. Thus slightly suborbital trajectories will count, as long as the planned trajectory would be a convincing demonstration of orbital capabilities.

Only the planned trajectory matters - whether the launch sucessfully reaches the planned trajectory or not does not matter.

"Launch" means liftoff from the pad, however slight - the rocket can explode without clearing the pad and the market will still resolve YES, as long as the planned trajectory was orbital or near-orbital.

Only credible plans will count - this market will not resolve on someone launching a bottle rocket to an altitude of 100m and declaring that it was intended to go to orbit.

The relevant timezone for determining whether a launch is prior to the end of 2024 is the local time at the launch site.

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