See the linked market for context:

https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/will-pc-be-punished-for-blatant-pro-a94a127ec6c8

This market closes when that market does.

Resolves YES if there is reliable evidence that a decision was made before close time. I will resolve based on the state of public knowledge at close time, evidence that emerges later will not count even if I haven't gotten around to resolving yet.

The spirit of this question is whether a decision will be made in time such that it would cause the linked market to trade close to 0 or 100%. Though I am not formulating it in that way, the quality of evidence I'll accept is basically what traders would expect to move the linked market to ~95% or <~5%.

I won't bet on this market.

Edit: if the close time of the linked market changes for whatever reason, that does not affect this market - its close time will remain as it is now.

Further edit: this market will resolve YES on a decision being handed down by the trustworthy-ish users by market close, even if that decision is not yet signed off on by David Chee, and even if any decided punishment is not implemented by market close. I do not know whether the linked market will require the punishment to be actually implemented by close in order to resolve YES. Edit: the creator has clarified that a decision is sufficient and doesn't need to be implemented. Nonetheless the trustworthy-ish decision is not the final one, and this market resolves on that alone, so there is a small possibility this market could resolve YES upon the trustworthy-ish users deciding a punishment is appropriate, even though the other one resolves NO (because the decision wasn't signed off on by David yet).

Will @PC be punished for blatant profit manipulation in the next month?

46% chance. [image]1 week market: @/CodeandSolder/will-pc-be-punished-for-blatant-pro