Will Starship's orbital flight test be aborted via the Flight Termination System?
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19
Ṁ19k
resolved Apr 20
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES on credible reports that either the Superheavy booster, Starship, or both, were intentionally destroyed via activation of the flight termination system, during the first orbital test of the integrated Starship–Superheavy vehicle.

Market stays open until the outcome of the first Starship–Superheavy launch ("launch" ≡ engine ignition + release of hold-down clamps) is known, or upon on-pad destruction. Activation of the FTS on the pad will cause the market to resolve YES.

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nice post

Thank you for sharing the information. It seems like there are credible reports suggesting that the Flight Termination System was intentionally activated during Starship's orbital flight test. The rice purity test market will remain open until the outcome of the first Starship-Superheavy launch is known. Any activation of the FTS on the pad will cause the market to resolve as YES.

It's not entirely clear to me yet whether it was aborted by FTS, or if it broke up by itself. Gonna see if I can tell for sure, or if there's any statements.

I see two distinct conflagrations, might match two FTS explosions?

@Mqrius NSF said on their stream that "we have official confirmation that it was the FTS". But unsure where they got it from.

Fair enough

predicted YES

@Mqrius Actually they didn't say "official", listening to it again. They said it pretty much right after the RUD.

This shot suggests that Starship broke up before the FTS was triggered, but it currently doesn't have a disclosed source.

Shrug imo this would be close enough but I have no stake in this market.

predicted YES

@Mqrius Thanks! And confirmed by SpaceX:

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-test

"At 8:33 a.m. CT, Starship successfully lifted off from the orbital launch pad for the first time. The vehicle cleared the pad and beach as Starship climbed to an apogee of ~39 km over the Gulf of Mexico – the highest of any Starship to-date. The vehicle experienced multiple engines out during the flight test, lost altitude, and began to tumble. The flight termination system was commanded on both the booster and ship."

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