Will Manifold have at least X mana millionaires on Jul 1st?
16
1.7k
Jul 3
98.5%
1
96%
2
94%
3
90%
4
88%
5
77%
6
58%
7
41%
8

Each answer X resolves YES if on July 1st, 2024, there are X or more accounts* on Manifold that have a net worth of at least 1 million mana for the whole day, Pacific time.

After market close I'll run a script to obtain all users' net worth for all updates of their net worth graph on July 1st, Pacific time, by reading the user_portfolio_history table via the supabase API. Users whose net worth is above Ṁ1M for the all graph updates (after factoring in potential adjustments*) that day will count.

If there are no graph updates on that day I will instead use the two graph updates immediately preceding and following the graph update outage.

I can add more answers to this market if it looks like higher numbers are plausible.

* fine print

  • Bugs and accounts that exist in order to demonstrate bugs, don't count

  • Accounts run by Manifold that are given printed mana to fulfil Manifold-related roles (such as @ManifoldLove and the official @Manifold account) don't count

  • Staff accounts do count, even though they are paid printed mana bonuses via manalinks and managrams from the @Manifold account.

  • @acc does count, as do bots generally if they're not operating with printed mana (any more so than the printed mana ordinary users get via streak bonuses etc).

  • Paper profit manipulation is fine, though good luck making it last all day

  • I will, best I can, account for large p2p loans by subtracting them from the debtor's net worth and adding them to the creditor's. So don't try to manipulate this market by just sending mana that has to be sent back, that counts as a loan and will be adjusted for. You could probably think of ways to get away with it long enough for me to resolve this market, but I'll re-resolve if I find out (hopefully re-resolution of multiple-choice markets is possible by then). Manalinks are visible via supabase.

  • Mana sent between known alts, or a user and a bot they control isn't considered a loan to be cancelled out for the above purposes.

This question prompted by an answer added by @Eliza to my omnimarket, a market you can use to request that I run a market on your behalf:

/chrisjbillington/chrisjbillington-omnimarket-1-add-q

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After the mega-airdrop, Jonathan Ray is nearly at 2 million as of right now. Let's see if he holds onto his mana until 1 July!

@Eliza Jonas Vollmer is currently a mana-millionaire.

Good news, it only costs $1000 to become a mana millionaire now.

@chrisjbillington no one has bet on this in a month, can you clarify before anyone bets whether this will x10 the mana requirement or not? (I wish we had used 1 May lol)

@Eliza (Should I close trading while we await a clarification?)

@Eliza I think counting mana without 10×ing the requirement is what makes most sense. Might make this market kind-of pointless, but maybe I'll add some higher numbers. Also, maybe not many people will deposit $1000.

Thoughts?

@chrisjbillington I also think it's totally fair to NOT 10x anything. Things like "Manifold staff do selloffs" was already supposed to be part of the calculation users should make on this question. Other stuff should also be fair game.

@Eliza that's that then. Market reopened.

Just to make sure, this market is specifically about the day that the script is run, yes? For example, if SG, who has a net worth of >$1M decides to loan 100k mana out for a few days, he'd not qualify?

@firstuserhere It's about July 1st, 2024, pacific time, and accounts must have >Ṁ1M for all updates to their net worth graph on that day to count. I can get that data even if I run the script at a later date.

I will be attempting to cancel relevant p2p loans best I can, but moving mana between known alts will not be cancelled. So if SG loans someone mana and I can tell, he would still qualify.

  • I will, best I can, account for large p2p loans by subtracting them from the debtor's net worth and adding them to the creditor's. So don't try to manipulate this market by just sending mana that has to be sent back, that counts as a loan and will be adjusted for. You could probably think of ways to get away with it long enough for me to resolve this market, but I'll re-resolve if I find out (hopefully re-resolution of multiple-choice markets is possible by then). Manalinks are visible via supabase.

  • Mana sent between known alts, or a user and a bot they control isn't considered a loan to be cancelled out for the above purposes.

As a participant in this market, I would really appreciate it if anyone can provide both:

  • The current number of mana millionaires under these rules (with list of accounts included)

  • Ongoing updates (monthly? quarterly?) of the number of mana millionaires according to these rules

It would really help to see the current list in a simple format instead of needing to just guess, or try to figure out where to find the list.

@Eliza Will do! Not right now, but ping me please if you notice I forget.

@Eliza right now I think it might just be the Staff and Jonathan Ray? With Jack almost there, and then Chris and Michael a bit behind that if we count botlab in Michael's net worth.