Each answer X resolves YES if on July 1st, 2024, there are X or more accounts* on Manifold that have a net worth of at least 1 million mana for the whole day, Pacific time.

After market close I'll run a script to obtain all users' net worth for all updates of their net worth graph on July 1st, Pacific time, by reading the user_portfolio_history table via the supabase API. Users whose net worth is above Ṁ1M for the all graph updates (after factoring in potential adjustments*) that day will count.

If there are no graph updates on that day I will instead use the two graph updates immediately preceding and following the graph update outage.

I can add more answers to this market if it looks like higher numbers are plausible.

* fine print

• Bugs and accounts that exist in order to demonstrate bugs, don't count

• Accounts run by Manifold that are given printed mana to fulfil Manifold-related roles (such as @ManifoldLove and the official @Manifold account) don't count

• Staff accounts do count, even though they are paid printed mana bonuses via manalinks and managrams from the @Manifold account.

• @acc does count, as do bots generally if they're not operating with printed mana (any more so than the printed mana ordinary users get via streak bonuses etc).

• Paper profit manipulation is fine, though good luck making it last all day

• I will, best I can, account for large p2p loans by subtracting them from the debtor's net worth and adding them to the creditor's. So don't try to manipulate this market by just sending mana that has to be sent back, that counts as a loan and will be adjusted for. You could probably think of ways to get away with it long enough for me to resolve this market, but I'll re-resolve if I find out (hopefully re-resolution of multiple-choice markets is possible by then). Manalinks are visible via supabase.

• Mana sent between known alts, or a user and a bot they control isn't considered a loan to be cancelled out for the above purposes.

This question prompted by an answer added by @Eliza to my omnimarket, a market you can use to request that I run a market on your behalf:

/chrisjbillington/chrisjbillington-omnimarket-1-add-q