Each answer X resolves YES if on July 1st, 2024, there are X or more accounts* on Manifold that have a net worth of at least 1 million mana for the whole day, Pacific time.
After market close I'll run a script to obtain all users' net worth for all updates of their net worth graph on July 1st, Pacific time, by reading the user_portfolio_history table via the supabase API. Users whose net worth is above Ṁ1M for the all graph updates (after factoring in potential adjustments*) that day will count.
If there are no graph updates on that day I will instead use the two graph updates immediately preceding and following the graph update outage.
I can add more answers to this market if it looks like higher numbers are plausible.
* fine print
Bugs and accounts that exist in order to demonstrate bugs, don't count
Accounts run by Manifold that are given printed mana to fulfil Manifold-related roles (such as @ManifoldLove and the official @Manifold account) don't count
Staff accounts do count, even though they are paid printed mana bonuses via manalinks and managrams from the @Manifold account.
@acc does count, as do bots generally if they're not operating with printed mana (any more so than the printed mana ordinary users get via streak bonuses etc).
Paper profit manipulation is fine, though good luck making it last all day
I will, best I can, account for large p2p loans by subtracting them from the debtor's net worth and adding them to the creditor's. So don't try to manipulate this market by just sending mana that has to be sent back, that counts as a loan and will be adjusted for. You could probably think of ways to get away with it long enough for me to resolve this market, but I'll re-resolve if I find out (hopefully re-resolution of multiple-choice markets is possible by then). Manalinks are visible via supabase.
Mana sent between known alts, or a user and a bot they control isn't considered a loan to be cancelled out for the above purposes.
This question prompted by an answer added by @Eliza to my omnimarket, a market you can use to request that I run a market on your behalf:
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ114 | |
| 2 | Ṁ36 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ21 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |
Apologies for the slow resolution, I haven't had much time for Manifold recently.
Here's the script:
https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/c67ebb5287ffd0a497bd201cf09d954d
Here's its output:
1. jacksonpolack M3051774
2. JonathanRay M2131725
3. acc M1891281
4. SemioticRivalry M1481859
5. jack M1423098
6. Manifold M1264569
7. chrisjbillington M1261305
8. PeterMillerc030 M1186151
9. Joshua M1077740
10. JonasVollmer M1071327
11. case M1068981
12. rossry M1038611@Manifold doesn't count as a user given the exclusions in the criteria, the rest do.
Possible loan corrections:
I see @JonasVollmer received a "charity structuring loan" from Manifold, but it was only M60k, not enough to bring him below the Ṁ1M threshold.
@jack got a Ṁ480k loan, it looks like that would bring him below the threshold.
I see a Ṁ40k loan from @Joshua to @Bayesian, but nothing that would bring Joshua below the threshold.
The next few users by net worth on Jul 1st are:
13. Quillist M973777
14. SG M935655
15. SanghyeonSeo M877370
16. Sinclair M832988
17. Kevinxiehk M812595 I don't see loans they've made that would bring them above Ṁ1M if included.
Looks like the answer is ten - the list of 12 above minus @jack, and minus @Manifold.
Resolving all answers YES.
@chrisjbillington description says after market close but also says July 1st a bunch. if july 1st, time to run the script? (or can wait til the 3rd)
The script can be run after the fact to get data for July 1st, so it's not inconsistent that I will run the script after market close and yet that the results will pertain to July 1st.
(Though I probably just set the close date to what I did to avoid thinking about timezones)
I'm extremely busy but will aim to make and run the relevant script in the next few days.
@chrisjbillington no one has bet on this in a month, can you clarify before anyone bets whether this will x10 the mana requirement or not? (I wish we had used 1 May lol)
@Eliza I think counting mana without 10×ing the requirement is what makes most sense. Might make this market kind-of pointless, but maybe I'll add some higher numbers. Also, maybe not many people will deposit $1000.
Thoughts?
@chrisjbillington I also think it's totally fair to NOT 10x anything. Things like "Manifold staff do selloffs" was already supposed to be part of the calculation users should make on this question. Other stuff should also be fair game.
@firstuserhere It's about July 1st, 2024, pacific time, and accounts must have >Ṁ1M for all updates to their net worth graph on that day to count. I can get that data even if I run the script at a later date.
I will be attempting to cancel relevant p2p loans best I can, but moving mana between known alts will not be cancelled. So if SG loans someone mana and I can tell, he would still qualify.
I will, best I can, account for large p2p loans by subtracting them from the debtor's net worth and adding them to the creditor's. So don't try to manipulate this market by just sending mana that has to be sent back, that counts as a loan and will be adjusted for. You could probably think of ways to get away with it long enough for me to resolve this market, but I'll re-resolve if I find out (hopefully re-resolution of multiple-choice markets is possible by then). Manalinks are visible via supabase.
Mana sent between known alts, or a user and a bot they control isn't considered a loan to be cancelled out for the above purposes.
As a participant in this market, I would really appreciate it if anyone can provide both:
The current number of mana millionaires under these rules (with list of accounts included)
Ongoing updates (monthly? quarterly?) of the number of mana millionaires according to these rules
It would really help to see the current list in a simple format instead of needing to just guess, or try to figure out where to find the list.
@Eliza right now I think it might just be the Staff and Jonathan Ray? With Jack almost there, and then Chris and Michael a bit behind that if we count botlab in Michael's net worth.