Some people want to be able to delegate question resolution to other users.
If you want to delegate a question to me, add it to this omnimarket, and I'll edit, clarify, and resolve on your behalf.
Once (if) this omnimarket gets unmanageably many questions, I'll close it to new questions and make a new one. This market's close date will be extended as needed - specify relevant dates in your question (or don't and I'll edit them to make them sensible).
I reserve the right to edit questions or N/A those that aren't real questions or are too hard. The purpose of delegating to me is that you might not want to have to think too hard about exactly how to operationalise and judge a question, so newly-added questions may be in a state of flux initially - caveat bettor.
Since questions are short, any edits and judgements I make will be optimised for keeping them short, so they may not be as objective as questions with their own markets, but I'll do my best.
Question-adders can feel free tell me what they were going for, but I officially take on the right to control clarification and resolution as I see fit, final decisions will be mine.
I'll use my judgement and not bet on questions that seem sufficiently subjective for that to be bad form.
If your question is particularly not well framed yet, feel free to leave it as a comment instead of adding a question, and I'll see if I can think of a way to frame it before adding it.
(The initial two answers on this question are there because you have to have at least two answers in order to create a question like this)
1,000Clarification for this one: we do expect to know the exact time the license is issued, as the document will have a timestamp. E.g. the previous license document says:
Digitally signed by MICHELLE S MURRAY
US Department of Transportation
Date: 2023.11.15 14:55:41 -05'00'
The one week clock starts at that timestamped time, and Starship-SuperHeavy must launch within seven days (i.e 7×24 hours) of that time for a YES resolution.
Edit: actually, not all calendar days are 24h long in the coming weeks, either in US eastern time where the FAA HQ is, or at the launch site in Texas. For the purposes of this question, March 10th is 23h long.
@Eliza Thanks for the submissions!
Yes, that's the idea, though they're limited to binary questions in this format. So for "how many" questions I'd have to either define a mapping between a range of numbers and the resolution probability, or make it binary with a specific threshold. Or maybe I should N/A that one and just create a separate market (multibinary: "will there be N or more users with M1M net worth..."). A separate market makes sense I think, I'm leaning towards that.
@Eliza OK, I made a market here:
/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-have-at-least-x-mana
Perhaps rather than NA it, I'll adjust the binary one in this market to be asking whether there will be more than a specific X, close to whatever the median looks like for the multichoice after some trading.
Note I edited the "N answers will be added" answers to specify "in 2024", since they didn't have an end date.
Given the crickets, they seem potentially overpriced
@ClubmasterTransparent It was a great learning in how to NOT communicate clearly, and humbling too, in the classical sense. But has served its purpose.
@ClubmasterTransparent ah, that's not quite what I meant and I'll NA the answer you added to this market -I meant to add questions directly to this one rather than linking to existing questions, if that makes sense.
Nonetheless I'll take a look at your question and see if there's anything I can do to help.