Will Manifold have another day above 1250 engaged users by end of September?

Chris Billington

closes Oct 1

19%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES on Manifold reporting greater than 1250 engaged users on any day from Sep 8th to September 30th inclusive.

Data is according to https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

Addendum Sep 13th:

Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's

community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular

collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are

fine.

In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to

correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:

Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

Traders please note the addendum to the description: resolution will not respect manipulation that runs afoul of Manifold's community guidelines.

Enrico Susatyobought Ṁ20 of YES

Been increasing for a couple days now. Close.

Enrico Susatyo

@chrisjbillington you know the answer to this already don’t you?

1 reply

Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

@esusatyo No, I do not.

Shump bought Ṁ55 YES from 16% to 19%

Jakob Tråsdahl bought Ṁ40 NO from 17% to 16%

PhilC created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 23%

PhilC created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 22%

PhilC created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 21%

PhilC created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 20%

Rahul Shah bought Ṁ15 YES from 16% to 17%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ67/Ṁ100 NO at 16% (cancelled) 🤖

Chris Billington bought Ṁ400 NO from 22% to 17%

Agh bought Ṁ30 YES from 20% to 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ100 YES at 20% (cancelled) 🤖

Shump sold Ṁ65 YES from 22% to 19%

PhilC bought Ṁ100 NO from 24% to 22%

Michael Wheatley bought Ṁ100 YES from 18% to 24%

Shump sold Ṁ28 YES from 20% to 18%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ71/Ṁ100 NO at 20% (cancelled) 🤖

Willi bought Ṁ100 YES from 16% to 21%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 16% 🤖

Willi bought Ṁ100 YES from 12% to 17%

KnowNothing sold Ṁ41 YES from 14% to 12%

PhilC bought Ṁ200 NO from 16% to 14%

PhilC filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 NO at 20%

Willi sold Ṁ58 NO from 15% to 16%

Brooster sold Ṁ38 NO at 15%

Shump bought Ṁ15 YES from 14% to 15%

Shump bought Ṁ40 YES from 12% to 14%

PhilC bought Ṁ500 NO from 16% to 12%

SpartanSPI bought Ṁ10 NO at 16%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ76/Ṁ100 NO at 16% (cancelled) 🤖

PhilC bought Ṁ100 NO from 18% to 17%

George bought Ṁ15 YES from 17% to 18%

Kelvin bought Ṁ100 NO from 18% to 17%

KnowNothing bought Ṁ5 YES at 18%

zedmelody ✨ sold Ṁ4 YES at 18%

nickten💙💦🐬 sold Ṁ14 NO at 18%

George sold Ṁ16 YES from 19% to 18%

kcs sold Ṁ30 NO at 19%

KnowNothing sold Ṁ16 YES at 19%

PhilC bought Ṁ100 NO from 21% to 19%

Entropy bought Ṁ5 NO at 21%

Jai D (Jai) sold Ṁ3 YES at 21%

An Ting bought Ṁ20 NO at 21%

NiciusBotBot created limit order for Ṁ22 NO at 71% (cancelled) 🤖

KnowNothing bought Ṁ15 YES at 21%

KnowNothing bought Ṁ10 YES from 20% to 21%

PhilC bought Ṁ200 NO from 23% to 20%

George bought Ṁ20 YES from 22% to 23%

PhilC created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 29%

PhilC created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 25%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ66/Ṁ100 NO at 22% (cancelled) 🤖

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