What will the lower-end of the Fed funds rate be after the FOMC meeting in [month] in 2024? Resolves to 32×(r - 2.5%).
7
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Ṁ591Ṁ420
Dec 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
64%
June
64%
July
64%
September
57%
November
54%
December
Resolved
88%January
Resolved
88%March
Resolved
88%May
Each answer resolves to 32×(r - 2.5%), where r is the lower-end of the target range for the Federal funds rate, in percentage points, after the US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting in the given month in 2024.
For example, if the FOMC leaves rates unchanged with a target range of 5.25–5.5% in their January meeting, then January will resolve to 32×(5.25% - 2.50%) = 88%.
If this result would be outside the range [0%, 100%], then the answer resolves to 0% or 100%, whichever is closest.
Here is a handy table mapping the fed funds rate target range to resolution probability:
2.50–2.75%: resolves to 0%
2.75–3.00%: resolves to 8%
3.00–3.25%: resolves to 16%
3.25–3.50%: resolves to 24%
3.50–3.75%: resolves to 32%
3.75–4.00%: resolves to 40%
4.00–4.25%: resolves to 48%
4.25–4.50%: resolves to 56%
4.50–4.75%: resolves to 64%
4.75–5.00%: resolves to 72%
5.00–5.25%: resolves to 80%
5.25–5.50%: resolves to 88%
5.50–5.75%: resolves to 96%
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@Gen I've got two characters remaining in the title, so I've added it to the description, hopefully that'll do.
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