You now have to click the treasure chest to get a loan from the Manifold bank.
Of all users that are active (made a bet, a comment, or a market) on Dec 21st, Pacific time, how many will click the treasure chest to get their loan? This market resolves to the fraction that do, as a percentage.
I'll resolve using Manifold API data (including the supabase API).
Note that the daily active users number on the Manifold stats page is calculated in UTC-7, whereas Pacific Time is currently UTC-8. I will be considering DAUs from midnight to midnight UTC-8 in order to align with the period of loan eligibility, so the number of users I get may not agree with the stats page.
1,000
3.0046% is slightly higher than I was expecting (I was happy to bet this up when it was at 25%), but that's still a minority of users.
So most users aren't getting their loans on a given day. And that's when this feature is new and more people are using it. I'd argue that's a pretty strong argument against the system!
I've put up a market on whether Manifold will pull this new system within a month: