What fraction of active users will receive a loan on Dec 21st?
15
330Ṁ281
resolved Dec 22
Resolved as
46%

You now have to click the treasure chest to get a loan from the Manifold bank.

Of all users that are active (made a bet, a comment, or a market) on Dec 21st, Pacific time, how many will click the treasure chest to get their loan? This market resolves to the fraction that do, as a percentage.

I'll resolve using Manifold API data (including the supabase API).

Note that the daily active users number on the Manifold stats page is calculated in UTC-7, whereas Pacific Time is currently UTC-8. I will be considering DAUs from midnight to midnight UTC-8 in order to align with the period of loan eligibility, so the number of users I get may not agree with the stats page.

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