If either of these two markets on all-time profit thresholds resolves YES, will it be because it was rigged?
Basic
15
Ṁ2313
resolved Sep 2
Resolved
NO

The two markets, resolving at end-of August:

Their resolution criteria allow for arbitrary shenanigans with regard to manipulation of paper profits, meaning that betters are not merely forecasting how profitable other traders will be, but also need to account for the possibility of manipulation.

If neither of these two markes resolves YES, this market resolves N/A.

Otherwise, this market resolves YES if at least one of the linked markets resolved YES in a manner that appears to be due to manipulation/rigging/shenanigans.

A temporary profit spike caused my Manifold bugs and charting inadequacies doesn't count as manipulation, unless introduced or exploited intentionally to manipulate these markets - if a trader knows how to take advantage of a bug and does so then that counts, but a randomly-occuring bug does not count.)

The obvious manner of manipulating paper profits is a user intentionally mispricing a market on which they have a high stake. That would definitely count.

Collusion with other users to create temporary high paper profits would count. Creating a market and subsidising it before budding it to extremes to launder subsidy money into "profit" also counts.

Shenanigans resulting in actual profits do not count. E.g. manipulating a different market in order to get a favourable resolution, resulting in real profits is fine.

We just want to distinguish between actual profit, and manipulated paper profits due to intentional mispricings, methods of laundering cash into profit via subsidies/alts/collusion/whatnot, and so on.

I won't bet because resolution may require a judgement call. I'll resolve N/A if I can't determine to reasonable confidence whether shenanigans took place.

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predicted NO

@chrisjbillington do you consider the first market to be resolve fraudulently?

@MarcusAbramovitch No, certainly doesn't look like it

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington it was due to trump tweeting.

am i missing something or are you trading this market chris?

predicted NO

@jameso Ah crap. Unintentional, despite being twice within a day. Sorry. I'm stupid. Will sell.

If only one could actually check a box at market creation time preventing oneself from trading. It's hard to keep track, and I normally trade on my own markets freely.

predicted NO

Just a clarification - this won't resolve NO just because one of the linked markets is looking likely to resolve YES without manipulation. We'll have to wait to see if the other one resolves YES due to manipulation. Either of them resolving YES due to manipulation would trigger a YES here.

This feels like it conflicts with the title, and I'm having a hard time coming up with a way of stating it succinctly.

What I intended was:

  • if neither of the linked markets resolve YES, this one resolves N/A

  • Otherwise:

    • if at least one of the linked markets resolves YES due to manipulation/shenanigans, this resolves YES

    • Otherwise this resolves NO.

I hope that's clear enough - suggestions for title modification welcome.

Whoops, I placed a bet, forgetting I had promised not to. I immediately sold it. Sorry about that!

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