This market resolves to the number of non-test rocket launches, intended to fly to space, that contribute (or are intended to contribute) to the Artemis III mission for a human moon landing, that are specific to the Artemis program.

Other Artemis launches that deliver (or intend to deliver) equipment to lunar orbit or the lunar surface count, if that equipment is intended to be available for use in Artemis III (whether it is actually used or not).

Previous Artemis launches that do not leave anything behind intended to be available for use in Artemis III do not count.

Launches that deliver general communications satellites to Earth orbit, that might be used during Artemis III do not count. That is, I am not going to count all of Starlink, or any other existing communications satellites, or any future communications satellite launches to Earth orbit, if they are general-purpose (even if their upgrade is prompted by the Artemis program, or anything like that).

A launch to deliver a satellite to lunar orbit (or a halo orbit associated with an Earth-Moon Lagrange point) specifically as part of the Artemis program, however, will count (even if the satellite is somewhat general-purpose and may outlast the Artemis program) - if NASA or SpaceX or some other official partner in the Artemis program describes such a satellite as being part of the Artemis program, and as long as it is intended to be available for use in Artemis III, it will count.

A multi-stage vehicle counts as a single launch.

An abort in which the upper-stage of a rocket separates from the lower stages whilst still on the pad, as an escape mechanism for the crew, will not count as a launch.

"Launch" means a rocket experiencing greater-than-one vertical thrust-to-weight ratio, due to the thrust of its engines, whilst not in contact with the launch pad or any other part of a launch system.

For an ordinary vertical ground launch this means lift-off, however slight, of the rocket from the pad, under the thrust of its engines.

For an air launch or kinetic launch system, this means the moment the rocket achieves positive vertical acceleration due to the thrust of its engines after separation from the launch aircraft or kinetic launch system.

This definition is intended to exclude cases where separation from the pad/launch system only occurs due to some failure such as the vehicle exploding (such as SN10's second "launch" - timestamp 3:00).

Failed launches still count, as long as they were intended to contribute to Artemis III in the sense described above, and as long as they were a "launch" by the above definition (i.e. , failure occurred after "launch").

"Artemis III" refers to the first mission in the Artemis program that is intended to take humans to the surface of the moon. If the schedule changes and missions are renumbered, this market will remain open and be edited to refer to "Artemis IV" or whatever the mission is called that intends to deliver humans to the surface of the moon. I will resolve the market once that mission is ended - either in failure or upon the humans arriving back on Earth. A mission must get as far as attempting a crewed launch (attempt = "vehicle on the on the pad, crew on board, count-down in progress, not a planned wet dress rehearsal") to count as "intending to take humans to the surface of the moon". If plans change before a crewed launch is attempted, then we'll start talking about Artemis IV or whatnot, and all the launches that contributed (or planned to contribute) to it instead.